Based on DG's Oct 4 press release Algar is ramping up nicely and Pod1 is getting better all the time, their combined output was summarized in the pr as follows: " .... Connacher continues to anticipate achieving a total exit bitumen production rate for 2010 of between 15,500 bbl/d and 16,500 bbl/d ... "

Assuming DG is correct and CLL avg's 16,500 bbl/d in 2011 from POD1 and Algar (yeah, it's supposed to grow but sh%t always happens to CLL), the question is: can CLL be a profitable company in 2011 at that production level? If yes, then CLL may finally be a decent investment assuming you add at these levels.

According to their Sept presentation, 2010 bitumen netback may be $27.85. If we assume same netback for 16,500 bbl/d in 2011 then surely to Krist that ought to be enough to pay the interest on outstanding debt and improve their overall debt to equity position, which would enable them to refinance their debt at more favourable rates than in the recent past.

If I understand Jurek correctly, CLL loses money on every barrel they produce, so more barrels equals more losses. A while back Spiderman posted, I think, that CLL will be financially 'comfortable' at a 2011 production rate of 16500 k or more. (feel free you guys to correct my reading of your analyses).

There are so many 'ifs' and inputs to consider when determing profit and loss in this industry. I'm not an accountant but anyway my simplest calc of CLLs cash flow from bitumen for 2011 is: 16500 bbl/d * $27.85 * 300 days of production = $138 million dollars. As far as I can tell, Montana, Luke and the conventional production are a wash, they don't seriously help CLLs bottom line.

So what you guys think about our company's prospects in 2011?