Crunch time is coming folks. Here's hoping they exit 2010 with at least 15k bbl/d and trending higher, then all that remains is proving they can pay their debt interest expenses and arrange a favourable funding model for the 24k expansion. If yes, then the market will revalue the company favourably - $2 p/s. If no, then get ready for the vultures and watch out for the distressed company sale and hello $0.50 p/s.

It's gotta happen now right? They're running 2 state-of-the-art SAGD production facilities, they have proved up the value of their land base, they have secured gas and electricity and the dilbit transporation, they're selling the product in a period decent prices. Today's heavy oil price may be the norm for quite some time.

Everything is in place. Surely there can't be any more operational reasons that DG can come up with to rationalize the company's mediocre performance and keep the market guessing. If CLL can't make money with what they have going for them now, in this price environment, then they/we are effed.

If at the year end they are making good money, then we can begin speculating about the 24k expansion funding arrangement from a position of financial strength. If not, then it's game over. You either sell out at the best price you can get, or die slowly for a long time by issuing more shares, selling assets, going deeper into debt while praying that $200 bbl oil is coming soon.

I'm optimistic. Connacher is long overdue for a run of good luck.