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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Q4
Q4

Feb 04, 2011 03:33AM

My whole play was based on 140 oil

The problem is that $140 oil will indirectly destroy us. Don't get me wrong, as I believe it is going to happen sooner rather than later. But when oil goes up too far too fast, there is a whiplash reaction to the economy.

Personally, I am afraid for oil over $120 per barrel. But that will be a certain reality by 2013, in my opinion.

I believe we can look at the future oil price as a series of saw teeth, like a pendulum. You will see it rise suddenly and too far, then the market reacts as a whole and it pulls back for a year or two. Then another period of a year or so where it rises quickly, then the economy is hit and it pulls back significantly. I think that someone who recognizes this future pattern and allocates a portion of their portfolio to it would do decently well over the next decade or so.


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