At the moment can one be confident as to the outcome of the current situation in the Gulf and its affect on oil prices. It would be my contention no.
Though the situation in Libya is still unresolved but, Qaddafi it would seem is bereft of international support. So that leaves the question of even if he is deposed, what will be the attitudes of the succesor regime? Then the next question is, once we have resolution of Libya, what would cause us to think Middle Eastern problems are resolved? For instance the Granddaddy of all Arab nations, Sauidi Arabia has two demonstrations planned. The first this coming Friday. Next will any other regional nations have similar problems? Are we witnessing a rolling progression of orchestrated crises? As of now, who knows? That makes CLL a dangerous stock to be in. But just as dangerous to be out of. Take your pick and your chances!
Brian