Sharky:

I would contend that the current sell off in most oil stocks is based on more hope than anything else. Do we have indication that Qhadaffi is ready to throw in the towel and thereby removing the isssue of contention irrelevent. No not at all. In fact, in the last tweny-four hours it has become clear that Qhadaffi has posted a battle victory over the opposing forces. The outcome of the Libyan war outcome has no clarity at the moment. In other words it could still go either way.

Then we have the issue of whether this is merely isolated incidents of rebellion or if there are organizing forces behind a rolling series of multiple crises which roll from one nation to another in a protracted wave of constant tension and provocation. The bottom line is that no one knows the answer to these questions. Therefore, we will only likely learn the actuality with the progression of time and events. This strikes me more as an unconfirmed hope rather than certainity of an outcome. Thus, pending ultimate resolution of events in Libya, as well as the rest of the region, a reasonable degree of peril for the rest of the world remains. This could well be a basis for lurching from peak to trough and back again in market sentiment from moment to moment.

Brian