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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Bitumen/ WTI OIL/CLL

Oct 24, 2011 03:36PM

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Oct 27, 2011 02:23AM
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Oct 27, 2011 12:11PM

Sorry to all who read this bitumen cost thread. Hopefully this is the last post for a while on this subject.

Very good action today. Next resistance is 52 cents and longer term about 75 cents.

Rebel,

You are making small progress but you are still clue less about the components of the cost and what is the bbl Royalties are based on.

1. Your suggestion that G & A (General and Administration) cost ($36 million ) is paid by the tooth fairy and as such is not part of the total bitumen cost is very funny but totally irrational.

2. Total cost of $53/bbl of bitumen is based on the presently paid Royalties and not on the post-payout as you imply.

Bitumen royalties are based on the average monthly WTI prices. The pre-payout rate (rate as we pay now) is:

WTI at $80/bbl we pay 4.08%

WTI at $100/bbl we pay 6.54%

When we move to post-payout period this rate will jump to:

30.77% at WTI $80/bbl and to 35.38% at WTI $100/bbl

OK, now that you know more let`s not split the hair about +/- $0.5/bbl of the Royalties. Let`s look at the big numbers.

3. Your suggestion that CLL management does not know what they are doing and including the Maintnace Capex To Sustain Oilsand Production in the Operational expenses is not funny at all and is based on your ignorance.

Operational expenses are:

a. Natural gas ~ 30% - variable component

b. Personnel, Power, Chemicals, Facility and Waste Disposal Costs ~ $70% -constant component.

Maintnace Capex To Sustain Oilsand Production (as per management) is not included in the OP Cost and is estimated at $37 million for 2011 or $6/bbl of bitumen.

4. You suggested that we should include the CLL Natural gas production (3700 MCF in Q2). CLL NG assets were sold as you should remember. Conventional oil production is very small and irrelevant.

This is it.

When you include all of the above the CLL cost of bitumen is $53/bbl or $52/bbl if you suggest that the WTI is going down and you insist on $3/bbl Royalties.





Oct 28, 2011 09:43AM

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