The previous post offered an example of a lowish estimate based on NPV of the SC mine from the 2011RE figures, using lowish metal prices (in comparison to todays 3 yr ave prices) etc etc

Golfyeti asked about a less conservative estimate. I consider the estimate below to be a tad optimistic but in the ball park.

The estimate below uses the starter pit info from the 2008 PFS (821.1M Tonnes) of higher grade material (yet still not as high as our 2010/11 paramount drills would indicate). Silver is estimated to 1.7gpt (again).

Current, 3 yr average metal prices: Cu $3.43, Mo* $15.00, Au $1,311.00, Ag $24.75.

*Mo is same price as previous example

Ramp up production to 150 ktpd. All other parameters the same as the previous example. The main difference in this example is higher metal prices, higher production rate, and higher grade starter pit. I also brought Capex down to $3.52B for the 150 ktpd operation. After the starter pit is finished, the average SC grade is used in the calcs.

150 ktpd for 360 days/yr: Initial (Starter Pit) Net Revenue b4 taxes = $1,319,159,264.12 per year for the first 15.2 yrs, $1,056,224,768.73 per year for the remaining life of mine. Total LOM = 18.73 yrs.

Yr Mine revenue b4 taxes

-4 -$352,000,000

-3 -$704,000,000

-2 -$1,056,000,000

-1 -$1,408,000,000

1 $1,221,443,763

2 $1,130,966,447

3 $1,047,191,155

4 $969,621,440

5 $897,797,629

6 $831,294,101

7 $769,716,760

8 $712,700,704

9 $659,908,059

10 $611,025,981

11 $565,764,797

12 $523,856,294

13 $485,052,124

14 $449,122,337

15 $415,854,016

16 $385,050,014

17 $356,527,791

18 $264,319,223

19 $178,660,215

NPV@8%= $8,955,872,851 [CUU portion: 25% CUU after 75% Tck earn-in = $2,238,968,212.77]

IRR@ 8.00%= 20.62%

Divide the CUU portion by fully diluted shares 400.2M = $5.512 per share jmho, dyodd