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A new round of investment Feast

Bustling, are all benefits.

The newspaper reporter was informed that, to enter May, the speed of Development and Reform Commission for project approval can be used "violent" to describe.

The National Development and Reform Commission official website of the project approval and approval column shows that only in one day on May 21 up to more than 100 projects approved, which total more for clean energy projects approved almost equivalent to May 20 the sum of the day. Related to this, 20 days before the four line in May added 34 billion loan, these loans to invest in new projects.

"It seems more than 4 trillion investment projects year fire." Academy of Social Sciences, an economist's point of view, was the rebuttal of the Macroeconomic Research Office of the State Information Center, ox-plow: "4 trillion is so large, who know How many items? "

According to preliminary statistics from January to April, the new projects growth over 8000, April, Development and Reform Commission approved the project as many as 328, almost double the same period last year.

Reporters learned that the May 22 clean energy projects is the third installment of centralized approval, the first two batches of centralized approval of the project, including a number of highway networks, airports and mass transit project.

"These projects involving railways, energy saving and environmental protection, infrastructure and other fields." Well-known regional economist, Sichuan Academy of Social Sciences Academic Advisor Lin Ling said in an interview with the "China Times" reporter, with consumption and investment, lack of stamina maintain growth to become the main policy objectives, but the key to security of investment and expansion of domestic demand is "steady growth".

In April the Fuyuan Heilongjiang, Xinjiang Shihezi, Qingyang, Gansu, Chongqing Jiangbei Airport construction project Development and Reform Commission, Department of Basic Industries approved. Subsequently, the the Alashan commuter airport, the red jungle airport in Sichuan Aba EIA report also received approval.

In addition to the airport, the Development and Reform Commission also focused on the approved number of hydropower projects. Places such as Sichuan, Yunnan Development and Reform Commission, Division of Comprehensive responsible persons confirmed to this reporter, "approved the largest water conservancy project, including two hydropower stations in Sichuan Jinsha, Dadu three hydropower stations in Yunnan guanyinyan Hydropower. "

"During this time, with the local Development and Reform Commission officials Lazard eat and drink almost all together." National Development and Reform Commission, an official said privately. According to him, since the end of February, the processing speed of the major construction projects suddenly accelerated.

Newspaper reporter access to the Reform Commission for approval in the construction of a railway projects, including rapid rail, coal channel, planned to start major projects including rapid rail, part of the batch has not yet started the Mengxi to Central China Railway Coal Transportation Corridor project . In addition, construction projects, including the central and western regional airports to ensure that the 2012 funds to reconstruct all the arrangements in place, the basic completion of the task to reconstruct.

Reporters learned from multiple local Development and Reform Commission, launched a major project than a ruthless, violent warfare. Fujian Province, the first four months launched the 369, Hunan started in April of major projects up to 223 billion yuan.

In Chongqing mayor HuangJiFan revealed the occasion of the signing of 72 cooperation projects with more than 30 central enterprises, there is a fight in Sichuan, the introduction of a more ambitious investment plans and Chongqing, Sichuan's GDP will exceed 4 trillion in the next five years. Among them, the Pihe water supply project started in May, dubbed the "Reconstructing a Dujiangyan Irrigation project large irksome.

Budget funds issued in advance

Macroeconomic downturn to force regulation of investment for help again.

The problem is that the situation to some extent this year than the 2008 financial crisis is more complex: not optimistic about exports, consumption is still tired, serious industrial hollowing out, can only pull up the banner of investment property market downturn, land finance unsustainable, local finances in dire straits left many questions.

"Since March, increasing the provinces of the investment projects deep pockets." Han-sub, investment researcher at the Institute of Development and Reform Commission said. Perhaps this time, the only investment can be stirred up a multi-resonance.

A staff member of the National Development and Reform Commission Department of Basic Industries Description: "We not only speed up project approval, issued in advance of the central budget for investment funds associated with the project, some overwhelmed." Development and Reform Commission, the relevant departments will continue to go around and urge the project implemented.

Sichuan Province, one surnamed Cao, ran the official said: "As long as the item newspaper, first reported to say."

The reporter get the exact news that the National Development and Reform Commission recently issued a notice on the key energy conservation projects, circular economy and resource conservation of major demonstration projects and key industrial pollution control in 2012 the central budgetary investment plan (first batch), around after hearing the surging, and strive to obtain more funds for the project.

"Some of the originally scheduled to start in the second half of project has been advanced to the first half of the National Development and Reform Commission said that these projects related to the central budget funds also allocated in place in advance.

According to statistics, compared with the previous two years, this year, issued by the government budget for investment rate has accelerated noticeably. A quarter of the budgetary funds year on year growth of 24.9 percent, the highest for two years.

During the two sessions this year, the NDRC report said the 2012 proposed to arrange for the central budget for investment of 402.6 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan more than last year. Han-sub, said: "The tendency of people's livelihood projects, at least two-thirds."

Reporters from the Development and Reform Commission was also informed of the committee this year, investment has been described as "necessary to further optimize the investment structure in an orderly way '12th Five-Year Plan to determine the major project". Among these, the protection of ongoing projects in construction, has also been identified for the construction of major projects.

Interview with the reporter also found around the nominal range of central government investment projects too numerous to mention. Guangxi Kusakabe March 14 declaration of the 2012 central budget for investment projects, for example, notice the focus on rural drinking water projects; Jiangxi Kusakabe March 22 notice, focus on the emerging industries of strategic projects; notice issued by the Heilongjiang focus on water conservancy facilities.

In fact, the rush of the provinces on the "big industry, big project", "excess and backward production capacity was to resolutely out of the project, estimated that there will resurgence." Lin Ling worry, this will divert limited funds. .

The core of economic policies to stimulate investment

Last week, 113 major projects under construction, all the funds ceased, the Hebei provincial government leadership led to the relevant report to senior and hope to get support. A result, their joy return.

The joy part be attributed to a State Council executive meeting held on May 23. The meeting clearly dependable growth on a more important position, according to the changes to increase efforts to fine-tune the presetting. Economists have this meeting as an operation signal of the Chinese government - in order to prevent the economic slowdown, too fast, more to stimulate economic policies will be introduced.

In fact, this signal has long been passed to the relevant administrative departments of the Chinese economy. Development and Reform Commission originally planned to start in the second half of water conservancy, protection of housing and more than 70 projects in the new energy sector, is now all advance into the approval channel. These projects to the Ministry of Finance, part is funded by the central government to speed up the progress of budget implementation in the near future will continue to advance the implementation of "the insider told the newspaper.

In addition, the start of private investment have been strengthened, in accordance with the arrangements of the State Council, June 5, developed to attract private investment in the details of the various ministries will also be launched soon.

These policy developments mean that the investment is still the core of this round of economic policy.

This did not seem unexpected, even for foreign investors. Stephen Green, head of the Greater China Research of Standard Chartered Bank to a recent survey showed that the CPI rise of foreign investors to the Chinese Government taken to reduce the project approval, the CPI is about to increase on this policy logic of the project has been more familiar, they are more worried about the sustainable financing capacity of the policy uncertainty and banks. Of course, Stephen Green also acknowledged that China's current macroeconomic policy really have to relax point.

Stephen Green, the survey results, the National Development and Reform Commission Macroeconomic Research Institute Chen Dongqi most worried about is downstream of the inflation and economic growth in the downlink at the same time come.

Yes, all around the economic downturn began.

Pre-start

The hunch increase the pressure of the economic downturn since early March, began to loom. "In the past two months of data we can see some problems, but after only two months, we will advance to do some preventive preparations, a ministry officials said.

Development and Reform Commission published on the website since March, approving projects progress began to accelerate, part of the highway network, airports and rail transit project by the centralized approval by a number of key areas, key industries, the project gradually introduced. In addition, the Reform Commission began to reserve a large number of projects, good transition from the "reserve status" to "positive action" fully prepared.

The action is also under way for export. The end of March, the foreign trade situation in the forum by the Vice Premier Wang Qishan attended the first East seven provinces, including Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Fujian and Shandong unprecedented signed a "military order" commitment to the force this year Paul's foreign trade growth rate of 10%. The first quarter of this year, these provinces and cities in individual growth rate is negative, while their total imports and exports in 2011 accounted for more than 80% of the total national imports and exports.

Close to decision-makers have said that these initiatives already in place did not look better for the April data, which not only made the situation becomes more serious, the relevant departments to anxiety up. In April, in terms of the overall data or policy makers concerned about the individual indicators of electricity consumption, the bank loan amount, appear more substantial decline in the number of data record the lowest value of the last three years.

Even as the new force is to increase the central enterprises in the first four months of this year, profits continue to decline trend. The latest data show that the first four months of this year, the central enterprises realized a total net profit of 253.3 billion yuan, down 13.2 percent in the month of April, a net profit of 71.35 billion yuan, a decline of 13.6%.

In May, the various ministries have been receiving the notice requirements to make recommendations to the economic slowdown, and requested "the more real the better. In fact, before the State Council executive meeting, the various ministries will prevent the rapid economic slowdown in the recommendations and comments report Development and Reform Commission, unified by the Development and Reform Commission reported to the State Council.

Informed sources, "the NDRC, the Ministry of the real sector is proposed to increase the fiscal, monetary and other means to stimulate economic growth, the financial department of the Ministry of Finance, the central bank and other financial proposals and stressed at the same time stimulate economic growth, attention to risk prevention and inflation. "

In many recommendations, the immediate is still investment.

May 23, the State Council executive meeting to accelerate the progress of the implementation of investment projects in the "12th Five-Year Plan, coupled with the position you want to start and accelerate a number of major infrastructure projects, which means that the project and approval of future projects expected to usher in the way "green light".

At the same time, matching funds policy to cooperate fully.

May 24, the Ministry of Finance allocated the protection of housing construction subsidies of $ 660 million; Development and Reform Commission, an official of the Finance Department revealed a seminar on corporate bonds and corporate debt issue size plans to more than 500 billion yuan this year for the protection of housing projects and major state projects in the approval procedures will be into the green channel; on the railway debt, the Office of the State for its special approval to allow its breakthrough less than 40% of the net assets limit, at the same time on the issue , the implementation of halving the interest tax concessions.

It is worth noting that the attitude of the government to increase investment, not added to other investments, but in the 12th Five Year Plan "of existing projects under the framework of infrastructure, education and health fields, to speed up the start The project, which those who are still questioning four trillion investment sequelae economists a little sigh of relief.

In addition, investments in these carriages, private investment to start or will start to become another engine of growth of investment. By advancing the opportunity to encourage private investment in the new 36, the State Council executive meeting explicitly encourage private investment in areas such as railway, municipal, energy, telecommunications, education, health care.

At present, relevant departments are speeding up the work, in accordance with the arrangements of the State Council, June 5, the various ministries to develop rules to attract private investment will also be launched soon.

Investment other than

In addition, a person in charge of SME Division of the Ministry of Industry, told this newspaper: the Department in supporting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises has made several recommendations, mainly around finance, social security and tax cuts to start the recommendations of the Ministry of Industry and policy efforts to larger Tax, the State Council on the 14th provided, the taxable total of 6 million micro-enterprise income tax is halved, we propose to expand to 10 million, the scope should be expanded further. "He said. "Aspects of social security, we recommend some places such as Xiamen, has begun to do, in addition to the pension insurance companies should pay insurance in half, to cover the shortfall by the local finance. Insurance this accounts for the cost of doing business very high. about statistics, accounting for 42%, if implemented, reduce the operating costs of the very policy for small businesses; financial aspect, we propose that the small micro-enterprise loans, included in the indicators of bank soundness inspection ; further reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions; non-performing loans of commercial banks in 2010 rate base, expanding tolerance, increased by one percentage point increase in loan amount all for small and medium-sized enterprises, or small micro-enterprise to provide re- warranty service guarantee loans to the implementation of the benchmark interest rate is no longer floating. "he said.

It now appears that relative to the investment to raise the hundreds of times, to stimulate consumption and expand the growth of exports of the two carriages is much more difficult.

Securities chief strategist of Bank of QUARTERLY in its latest research report pointed out that the automotive, home appliance sales once a few years ago for economic growth played a very important role, however, from the latest in car ownership and urban traffic the general current situation, the higher level of car sales is very difficult. Relatively speaking, the potential space of the home appliance may be greater.

At this point, the action has already begun, May 16, the State Council executive meeting decided to arrange 265 billion yuan of financial subsidies to start the promotion of energy efficiency standards for air conditioning, flat-panel TVs, refrigerators, washing machines and water heaters, the promotion period of the provisional year. This is the second Home appliances, trade, air-conditioning energy-saving policy of benefiting involved in the appliance industry, the fourth policy support.

In addition, the media revealed that a few days ago the State Council executive meeting has clear policies to promote the consumption of energy-saving appliances, the new policy by the national number of ministries jointly developed the package is expected to be formally announced in July.

According to the Commerce Department said July 1, Beijing is expected to formally introduced the furniture trade-in policy, should the pilot effect is obvious, and in the country.

On the export side, close to the Commerce Department analysts said external demand, but it is still as space. Financing, for example, can take advantage of the policy of the Export-Import Bank loans, together with the financial support to solve the small business market expectations due to exchange rate change factor caused uncertainty and loss.

At this point, the action of GDP-saving full upgrade. At this point, the more supply 'of fans who found that its effort to toss has been very limited the potential of the old carriage, as renewed attention to the supply' of new tools, particularly the tax cuts may bring economic vitality .

However, these fans may be slightly disappointed. Continue to implement the structural tax cuts, mainly the implementation of last year and six tax reduction measures introduced this year. "The Treasury Department has made this year's tax cuts deployment.

6 tax relief measures, Strategic Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Finance GaoPeiYong After preliminary calculations, the implementation of down, less than 100 billion scale ". Aim of think of our total economic output, fiscal revenue and fiscal deficits, which does not adapt.

To this end, he proposed to increase the VAT tax cuts, because the VAT is the largest tax, China's tax system is indeed affect the whole body, only it is less, only reduce the overall tax burden possible.

VAT reform "we are seeing now is just 'camp reform growth', to reduce the double taxation problem, the overall burden, but individual enterprises, some increase in the negative. This shows that VAT should not simply expand the circumference VAT itself need to be changed. Now let the business tax reform VAT, the original tax system suitable for the manufacturing sector can not simply be copied in to the service sector. "said the Aim.

In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission Macroeconomic Research Institute Chen Dongqi, taking into account the ongoing industrial restructuring, structural tax cuts to the areas to first reduce the personal income tax, especially a tightening in consumer demand time; followed by the emerging industries of strategic tax cuts to further refine existing policies and new energy vehicles, energy conservation, bio-medicine, new materials, the next generation of IT and other industries to get more policy support; The third is the appropriate adjustments in import and export tax rates, reducing taxes on technology products and services strength.

Downside risks to

The latest data show that HSBC China announced on May 23, May HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), an initial value of 48.7, down from 49.3 in April data. This means that China's economic decline may not yet ended, the economy has not yet bottomed out.

Chen Dongqi opinion, the risk of an economic downturn in China is increasing, if the policy is not timely, fell to 7% is possible.

At present he is most worried about is downstream of the inflation and economic growth in the downlink at the same time come for the inflation he expects, a year earlier in June CPI increase will fall to 2% to 2.5% inflation rate in the second half of the year will remain downward trend.

"I had been talking about the need to prevent the synchronous decline of the GDP and CPI, this situation is more dangerous, if not the policy of timely follow-up, and they may be driven each other and formed to accelerate the decline." Said Chen Dongqi.

To this end, the direction of the next step policy adjustments, Chen Dongqi stressed that the timing of stimulus policies introduced is more important than the method to take macro-control, play the role of the market, the role of monetary policy, fiscal policy leverage. must advance a little earlier to prepare. This point in time, handled properly, but also time to take a large number of administrative measures and I think more so the more we need to take economic means, because if you do not take economic measures, the economy has been down to the end only to take administrative measures to take economic means the best way is to do in advance to prepare, because once the economic growth rate dropped to 6%, 7%, to be laid off at that time, when society is also unstable, that the political priority, the stability of priority, only administrative measures. "he said.

Stephen Green, think that the Chinese monetary policy gradually to relax, project approval can be gradually more fiscal tax cuts can be done more pronounced. According to his observations, the financial institutions willingness to lend has been significantly improved, such as Zhejiang in some parts of the construction of railways last year has been to get loans, only the four lines a little willingness, but this year many local banks have taken the initiative expressed its the wishes of the loan.

Deutsche Bank chief economist Jun Ma said, From a financial perspective, the first four months of fiscal spending is much higher than the revenue, on fiscal policy has begun to force; monetary policy, the future direction of adjustment is the mobility, but rather the regulation of counter-cyclical.

Specific monetary policy in the future direction involved in high-level decision-making to informed sources, the basic consensus is that monetary policy continued to lower the deposit reserve ratio, especially small and medium-sized financial institutions deposit reserve ratio is a consensus, but reduce the frequency and amplitude differences, the real economy department would drop a little bit faster, a little more, the central bank tend to be robust attitude. Whether to use the interest rate tool has not yet reached consensus.