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CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Message: Teck Offer Timing

In the webcast, Elmer said when the BFS is released, Teck loses control of the Liard shares and doesn't earn them back or its 75% (if that is the option chosen) interest in Schaft until the mine is built, which they have to 100% finance and pay for, and in "commercial production". And as I understand it, if they don't hit the 4 year window, they would never get the 75% despite all the money that would have gone in to that point.

I can't see Teck allowing that to happen. If the BFS calls for - say - $3.2 billion to bring the mine into production, and if the BFS comes out at the end of August, Teck has roughly until the end of 2016 to have the mine in operation and selling copper extract. Will Teck gamble there will be no NTL schedule disruptions, no labour shortages, no issues out of the blue with the First Nation peoples or the Environmental crowd, no equipment backorders or other missed deadlines? Can't see them risking it.

So a take-out/offer before the BFS makes sense. In my conversation with Mike, I asked if there was a Teck offer before the BFS, would the Board feel compelled to release the partial results to the shareholders prior to a vote so we could judge the fairness of a Teck offer (even although our votes mean diddly). Mike basically indicated the Board would do what is fair and reasonable to the shareholders under those circumstances, and would have to look at that decision in great detail. I think management is in our corner and wants any deal to be perceived as fairly presented.

Teck's people (including Jim Gray?) probably already know how the BFS will turn out. I think the sooner they make their offer, the less likely management will feel compelled to provide key BFS info to the shareholders for a vote. Which means all the Biggies watching over us might be discouraged from submitting a competitive bid.

The annual meeting is less than 6 weeks away. Great time to vote on something more than the auditors for next year. I think the die was cast when Teck staked their huge claim area next to us in April and now, deal negotiations are in the works. The only shares CUU insiders may have a chance to buy on the open in the future is after a big dividend payout.

As Vette and many others have said, all the signs are there. Plus, i want to take the grandkids to Disney in the early fall and will need big squish for that.

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Jun 10, 2012 12:59PM
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