First of all, I don't know where this idea of Teck walking became a bad thing....We're in the same position they're in. If Teck bought us out, they would get 100% for 25%. They would then be able to take their time and sell various % blocks to others. Capex would pay for itself. Now if Teck walked, Copper Fox would keep 100% and just do the same thing.

You really think Ernesto and the other insiders that own 65% of the float are just going to say ''ok, Teck is out we lost our money, oh well'' ? LOL

No, but I can see it likely that we need to spend another $50 million to make this more than the mediocre project our FS shows it to be currently. I think we would drop to 25 cents if they walked - then EE PPs the 50 million (=200 million more dillution!!) and we develop the property for a year or two to get it right the second time and then can sell for a fair price.

That is a lot of delay, and a lot of dillution. I know you are trying to wrap a negative as a positive, but come one - a spade is a spade. The optics would be horrible for us if Teck walked - they have a sweetheart option on this project to get up to 75% for a song! If they don't bite on that carrot, someone else will jump in for more? Maybe, but I don't think the most likely scenario...

You have companies out there / Mitsubishi, willing to pay 900 million for 18% of Peruvian deposits with water issues and no Feasibility study.

A lot of majors have overpaid for expansion - there are so many multi-billion dollar writedowns recently. I am sure everyone is gun-shy about pulling the trigger on big projects at 'fair' prices. Lots of other projects available at fire sale prices. They will invest in best bang for buck in my opinion. I think these massive buy ins are going to be a rarity until the market changes - too much uncertainty out there.

Teck backing out: The odds of that happening are very low but some seem to think we would go down...maybe a knee jerk ''follow the herd mentality'' reaction.

Ok..but how long would that last before the smart money starts buying. The downside seems pretty limited from our current 70 cent share price.

Our previous record on share price predictions has not been good. We have been so optimistic for years and the price always goes the opposite of predictions. So I think downside limited if Teck walks is a bit of a stretch here...

Then the EA comes along (imo already a given in our case a given) and we can use 5%. base case NPV = 1.694 Billion. = $4 a share. (again with waste rock and using 50% of the resource estimate.

I am not sure that in this market the 5% base case option is what will be used by one of our suitors. 5%, sure but base case is a big assumption on the positive side. We have to be realistic here.

From this point the potential is massive... So is that what everybody seems to fear?
Now that we would officialy own 100%, would Ernesto and David start buying every share?

Poitential would be good, but I don't know if 'massive' is realistic. How do you come up with EE and David buying every share? Even after all the PPs needed to bring us to this point? I don't share your optimism.

Ernesto was already willing to pay 1.35, 1.22, 1.10, 1.12, 1.15, 0.85, 0.79 for the expected 25%...

Past purchase prices done when the market reality was different don't nessarily carry forward. In the past, we were looking at negative cost copper, expectations of a dramatically better FS and almost a given that we were going to be working with Teck.

Let's look at the odds of Teck backing in 75% or buying us out. The odds are high and the upside (from 70 cents) is high.

First I'd like to say that I think buying us out is cheaper than backing in 75%. If they take it all, they can sit on it as long as they want and improve the economics, they aren't force to move it into production, they can slowly improve the economics as they look to sell portions of the mine and stay the operator. Eventually Capex is costing them nothing.

I agree with you here Vette. I'm not so sure about a buy out at prices the board is expecting though. Just my opinion.

Also, where did you get the part about Teck trying to buy Xstrata's Liard shares, but the refused to sell? I was not aware of that at all and would like to do some DD on that. If true, that bodes well for us.

Thanks for the post Vette, I am not meaning to attack your post, maybe just temper the 'nothing can go wrong' tone of it.