That's definitely an oversimplification between the two (CAPEX?) but I agree that your approach is the best way to look at it. If we...
1) Use this as a relative benchmark to give us a ballpark of what majors are willing to pay these days
2) Assume that buyout price is based moreso on what resources we have (as opposed to SP)
Then, I'd have a hard time seeing the SP go down on the day the news is released given that we are trading in 60s. This NR simply reinforces the idea that we are extremely undervalued and the potential upswing (from where we are now) could be massive.
Does this mean that we will reach/exceed our previous highs? This I don't know. But a nice boost the SP (to say the least) is what I am expecting in the next week (assuming the 120 days is respected...but that's a whole other discussion heh)