Re: Where are Chappy, Vette, Webgogs, Prospect?
posted on
Sep 26, 2013 04:22AM
I would like to stress the meso economic factor here. A stock will never do good if its sector is still down massively. i would not be surprised if we are still outperforming the sector. Majors miners are only just recovering and have a higher beta than the rest of the index stocks. Juniors have an even higher beta that means they only perform in certain very specific! macro economic conditions. That condition is when the market is almost in full recovery, like we saw in end 2010 begining of 2011.
Cyclicals have a certain pattern. After a market crash in the recession, in this following order, types of stock sectors will recover. Defensives like consumer staples, certain industrials and oil related stocks might be perfoming well. The cyclicals will be down the drain (higher beta). First cyclical to recover are often airliners, then work employment companies followed by banks. only after that we will see recovery of the basic metals. Basic material majors are recovering, only when that has happened and macro economic circumstances are right will junior miner stock boom and when they do, they go the fastest. You could compare it to the 100m sprint an extremely powerful burst for a very short time. After that the stock will often deflate like a balloon. That deflating is what we have seen the last 2 years is actually a period we should have skipped if buy out was not imminent.
So where are we now at this cyclical spectrum? Well we know all other cycicals have greatly recovered and reaching new highs. We are seeing basic materials recovering such as Teck and Freeport. That means we are we next inline, simply because we would be the sector where the greatest gains would be available.
Bottomline its meso and macro economically almost give a green light and that should surge us to +1,00 levels within the coming couple of months.