Re: Elmer response: CEO's thoughts/opinions
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 30, 2013 02:26PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
I don't think that his response is that SC is worth more than those comparable projects - I believe when he says "Schaft Creek is worth more" he means to say that it's worth more than it's trading for (Because really CUU is trading based on SC, Arizona isn't a factor in people investing).
If he does mean that SC is overall worth more than those transactions (he doesn't even cite which ones - you do) than 25% of that isn't necessarily this massive amount for us - though surely more than what we're trading at.
The things you do cite also were sold during a bull market...not in the current market we're in now. You can't really use those valuations. It's like buying a house at the peak of the crash and saying "comparable houses sold for X" so you should buy it now during a recovery phase for that same amount. We'll have to wait a while before you can really use those same valuations.
E-mail him back and ask him if he meant more than those overall, or more than what we're trading at right now. Ask him what those comparables are. Given we have a BFS that says we're worth X - it's hard to say we're worth more. Of course the assumptions can change and change the value - but you can't just choose the best comparable valuations, what happens in the best case scenario of what we have and ignore the other side of what could happen on the worst case scenario - especially since so many things have happened that weren't best case and have happened already.
The original quote:
5) What is your opinion regarding the evaluation of Schaft Creek in terms of monetary value? The improvement in NPV? Real options Case?Unfortunately I am not allowed to comment on these matters. If you look at comparable transactions for large copper projects (in the past) Schaft Creek is worth more. The current market is very slow which strongly suggests that now is not the time to think of selling our interest in Schaft Creek, after the 2013 results are known and if the valuations pick up, then would most likely be a better time to)