Re: Teck opts out to increase interest in Fort Hills...
posted on
Sep 22, 2015 01:14PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Funny, with a proper optimization, Schaft Creek's new NPV should match or exceed Teck's current market cap imo. Not so funny that Copper Fox's 25% share of SC's NPV will be around $800 M and here we sit forever at .15 with CUU at market cap of $65 M.
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I sure can't agree that postulation.
If this was remotely that case they wouldn't be taking their time with it and certainly wouldn't be wasting time with Fort Hills, imho. They would be touting this monster addition to their stable of projects to buoy thier SP, but they rarely give it more than a mention. EA on hold with no indication of persuing it in the future.
To state our undeveloped project could eclipse Teck's market cap shows how disconnected with the current metal prices and market conditions some may be, IMHO of course.
There is no valid information stating that our share is worth 800 million that I am aware of. A lot of things have changed since our FS (market sentiment, metal prices, exchange rates), and I think trying to extrapolate values using calculations from that old FS for value shifts for currencies and metal prices are useless.
I can't imagine the people preparing our FS ever imagined the wild changes from expectation of prices and exchange rates - and with such wild diversions from expectations render the NPV equations worthless. Way too far out of expected range, and the further they diverge the more inaccurate they become...
Teck trading at $7ish is proof of that - things have changed. Dramatically.