Re: Expectations
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 17, 2021 02:36PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Both 10Y and 30Y bonds have retraced (snap-back) yesterday's move during/after yesterday's FOMC $hitshow. Metals are lagging, but I think it won't be long before they start rising again after this engineered flush, rinse/repeat cycle.
I agree with Jeff Gundlach, Albert Edwards and many others who think that high inflation is NOT transitory and we'll be seeing lots more of it. Financial Repression is the name of the game and the only way for the US to get out of the massive debt and a 130% debt/GDP ratio. Yesterday's "hawkish" (not really) FOMC meeting, I believe, was to take the heat off the commodity markets. I think Q3 will see that snap-back, and GOLD is showing a pretty good reverse head-n-shoulder (though HS isn't all that reliable). Traderstef, Gary Savage (check his YTube channel) and David Brady (Twitter) usually call the charts pretty well, so they may be helpful is timing some trade.
Long term, copper, gold, silver still look great!
For more info on "financial repression" see this IMF working paper.
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2015/wp1507.pdf
Abstract
High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative ½ of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.