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CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Message: Re: Discount rate
4
Jul 10, 2021 10:40PM
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Jul 11, 2021 01:20PM

Too hot to do anything so I thought I would list the reasons why Schaft Creek is undeniably less risky than Galore Creek and should get a way lower discount rate than Galore Creek.  Feel free to add anything you think I have missed.

1) Stage of study -- this is the biggie in terms of derisking:  

SC has an eight-year-optimize FS vs Galore with a PEA and a PFS supposedly started.  Just based on this relative stage of study SC should have a dramaticaly lower discount rate.

2) Super-low cost per pound.  There is no better down-side protection than having the lowest costs in the world to mine something.  SC Margins and IRR are huge!  Lots of room for metal prices to go down without fear of losses and/or a shutdown for economic reasons.

3) Lower capex - another biggie

4) Shorter build time - this is important de-risking too

5) Geography for an operation: Gentle and accessible SC valley vs extremely challenging Galore location with its extremely rugged high elevation. 

6) Accessibility

Remember that Galore abandoned the required multi-kilometer under-mountain tunnel after trying for just a few weeks

7) Diversification of revenue streams

SC has a broader range of metals being mined, this equals diversification and hence more revenue stability which means less risk

8) Cost Net of Credits

Not just more diversified but more total metal credits at SC than Galore

9) Optionality

Polymetalic deposits in a mining district with varying deposit mixes also equates to optionality of mining different deposits based on existing metal prices.  Too many people undervalue optionality, but it is a huge de-risker

10) Expansion potential
This is a separate form of optionality.  Production can be ramped up.  LOM extended.  Ability to capitalize on higher metals markets is a huge de-risker.  Not all deposits have this.  SC is far more expandable than Galore

11) Execution risks
Teck with 75% of SC it has unilateral control of the project's future (they can't be blocked by a partner) vs Teck not in control only with 50% vs/Newmont 50% - this aspect of SC vs Galore represents less execution risk. 

12) Environmental issues are greater at Galore too because its watershed affects more sensitive waters -- the rock at SC is lower acid rock than at Galore and we have "no fishies" in the immediate vacinity

13) Community support
The Tahltan nation by all accounts appears to support a mine build at Schaft Creek.  Admittedly, I have no idea how they feel about Galore Creek 

The only thing I can see that Galore has better than SC is higher copper and gold grades.  But sanctioning a mine is about top-to-bottom economics vs many risks.  Its not just about grades.

 

ALL JMHO  



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Jul 11, 2021 06:40PM
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Jul 12, 2021 10:22AM
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Jul 12, 2021 11:13AM
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Jul 12, 2021 11:49AM
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