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CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Message: Sensitivity analysis

From the 2013 FS.  I know it's outdated, but think most of it is still somewhat relevant.

Variations (estimated) per the 2013 sensitivity analysis:

  • Exchange rate: 75M per point
  • Copper: 50M per point
  • Operational cost: 40M per point
  • Capex: 30M per point
  • Gold: 20M per point

Current parameters:

  • Exchange rate: from 0.97 to 0.77, 21 points favorable
  • Copper: from $3.25 US to $3.50 US (estimated), 8 points favorable
  • Operational cost: from $13.25/t US to $8.66t US, 35 points favorable
  • Capex: from $3.26B US to $2.65B US, 19 points favorable
  • Gold: from $1445 US to $1400 US (estimated), no significant change

This brings me to a pre-tax NPV (8%) around 4.5B US. 

Assuming they lose about 15% of cash flows due to royalties, that brings my estimate down to $3.8B US for 100% of the project.

Moly price could affect the numbers unfavorably by a couple decimals if they use something around $10 US.

IMO.

MoneyK 

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