From the 2013 FS. I know it's outdated, but think most of it is still somewhat relevant.
Variations (estimated) per the 2013 sensitivity analysis:
- Exchange rate: 75M per point
- Copper: 50M per point
- Operational cost: 40M per point
- Capex: 30M per point
- Gold: 20M per point
Current parameters:
- Exchange rate: from 0.97 to 0.77, 21 points favorable
- Copper: from $3.25 US to $3.50 US (estimated), 8 points favorable
- Operational cost: from $13.25/t US to $8.66t US, 35 points favorable
- Capex: from $3.26B US to $2.65B US, 19 points favorable
- Gold: from $1445 US to $1400 US (estimated), no significant change
This brings me to a pre-tax NPV (8%) around 4.5B US.
Assuming they lose about 15% of cash flows due to royalties, that brings my estimate down to $3.8B US for 100% of the project.
Moly price could affect the numbers unfavorably by a couple decimals if they use something around $10 US.
IMO.
MoneyK