With some corrections. Again, this is just for fun...
Variations (estimated) per the 2013 sensitivity analysis:
- Exchange rate: 75M per point
- Copper: 50M per point
- Operational cost: 40M per point
- Capex: 30M per point
- Gold: 20M per point
Current parameters:
- Exchange rate: from 0.97 to 0.77, 21 points favorable
- Copper: from $3.25 US to $3.50 US (estimated), 8 points favorable
- Operational cost: from $13.25/t US to $8.66t US, 35 points favorable
- Capex: from $3.26B US to $2.65B US, 19 points favorable
- Gold: from $1445 US to $1400 US (estimated), no significant change
- Moly: let's assume any decrease in price is cancelled by lower sustaining cost
This brings me to a pre-tax NPV (8%) around 4.5B CAD.
Assuming they lose about 8% of cash flows due to royalties outside of the JV, that brings my estimate down to 4.1B CAD for 100% of the project.
IMO.
MoneyK