Re: Question and Answer Colin
in response to
by
posted on
Sep 13, 2021 11:12PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
..."It will be a huge diappointment to me if the continued delay is not so that Teck can make a big splash for investor day. Don Lindsay earlier made comment about something exiting happening. We will see. 8 days to go."
Indeed. Investor Day hints have come up several times in the past two quarterly investor calls Teck has held. I think some of this has been posted before, following the calls. I took another look at the transcripts tonight for fun to see if I missed anything. I guess we will have to see how Schaft stacks up against the other projects they keep trumpeting on about, that I'm frankly sick of hearing about! San Nicolas and Zafranal. I'm hoping Schaft goes from the satellite darkness into the light VERY @#$%ing SHORTLY.
K
Q1 call, April 28
Greg Barnes -- TD Securities -- Analyst
Okay. So just a question for you, Don. Given you have QB2 in flight, you've got a couple of cover projects in the pipeline, potentially if you want to build them. There's a lot of talk about what the right long-term incentive copper price is. Do you have a view on that? And could you give us your ideas on that?
Donald R. Lindsay -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So I mean, that could be a very long answer, but I'll distill it. So in our planning, I'll give like what we do as a company and then personal view, if you like, in our planning, we've generally used $3 copper, and in some cases, we've used $3.10 or $3.15, it's been down in those ranges. I see quite a few research reports now coming out saying enterprise has to be at least $3.50 to do it. And you always have to look at these things, whether they're inflation-adjusted or not relative to sort of real prices.
My own view is that COVID has accelerated copper demand from what would have been a long-term rate of about 2% and it's probably gone up a full percentage point to 3%. Woodmac says 3.2% or 3.5% and that's probably right. If you see the activity in the world. You see what's happened in the last week between President Biden hosting the Climate Summit, President is making his announcements, and Mark Carney, getting the banks matures to mobilize trillions of dollars to net 0. All of that is going to accelerate decarbonization and accelerate demand for copper. So I think the prices are going to be there. We're seeing that in the market.
Now I just don't think the resources are there to develop. We're in a very fortunate position. We have a long list of projects at different stages, some of which could be built quite shortly or built by partners quite shortly. And then CB itself is massive over eight million tonnes now headed to 10 million tonnes. So we could do nothing, but just that for the next 10 years, and that would be real value-adding for the company.
So I think given the nature of the resources that are out there, you're probably going to need $3.50 copper to get companies to mobilize to go after to actually develop them. There's got to be a real reward for going through the 10 to 15 years of pain to get something built.
Emily Chieng -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst
And then maybe just one follow-up, if I may. On the copper price environment and positive demand trends that you're seeing, for the green metal and certainly, QB2 delivering into that should be a very exciting time. But if you think about your longer-term organic portfolio, is there a need to accelerate any of the other growth projects that you have? Or or from a tech perspective, would you rather see how the copper price environment plays out for a little while longer, enjoy the free cash flow harvest and then make those decisions?
Donald R. Lindsay -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Let me speak to that. We don't need to see the copper price play out any longer. We have confidence in the long-term copper price that the market is going to need those projects. So that wouldn't be the limiting factor. The limiting factor is the stage at which each of the projects are at. So for example, QB2 is obviously going to be finished next year. Even if we wanted to go ahead with QB3 the earliest we could sanction that is probably beginning of 2026 because we have to finish the pre-feasibility study that's in now, then feasibility, then filed for the EIA and so on. If everything went perfectly, you might be able to do it three to six months faster, but nothing ever does go perfectly. So there's going to be a gap between when QB2 starts up next year of probably three full years of very, very strong free cash flows. And even when QB3 sanctioned the first equity capital comes from our partners and then project finance. So Teck wouldn't have to come up with any funding until 2027 or 2028. So there's a long stretch there where there should be very, very strong cash flows available to return to shareholders.
The other projects, Zafranal, the feasibility is finished, but there's a lot of optimization going on. Peru still locked down, and I saw earlier that, that's likely to stay until September. So the earliest anybody who wanted to partner with us there could go visited is not for several months yet. Say, Nicholas, we've just finished the pre-feasibility study, which we'll be publishing in due course. We're just working on some final questions. And that's one that maybe could be built during the period between QB2 and QB3 we'd probably have a partner build that for us. So again, we wouldn't have to come up with any capital.
The market will need the projects, but the project themselves have to go through the stage gate process. Until they're ready to be built. So that's really the state of affairs. And that's the same worldwide, by the way. You look at all the list of projects, there's about four or five that are already under construction coming on in the next two years. And after that, there's a long period when there's quite a gap that's going to open up.
Timna Tanners -- Bank of America -- Analyst
.....And then on the projects the satellite project, you just went through and explained that the early sanctioning for QB2 would be 2026 and Zafranal needs to go -- has done the feasibility, and then Nicholas is potentially for this. But can you just go through and give us earliest production? And what are the gaps in the projects, if you could? Because you also said that tech is in a favorable position to start earlier than other companies. So I'd just like to understand that timing a little better. Thank you.
Alex Christopher -- Senior Vice President, Exploration, Projects and Technical Services
That's a fairly detailed question. What I'm going to suggest is that what's the best way to handle because there's eight projects really and all different timetables because there are different levels of development from pre feasibility, feasibility and so on. And the permitting in different countries takes a different length of time. I think what we'll probably do is put a package answer to that and get it out to the market generally in some form between now and the next quarterly. And certainly at Investor Day, we'll be going through that -- those plans and details, but it would be a very long answer, and it would only generate a whole bunch more questions if we try to go through the whole list today. So we certainly appreciate the questions, and we -- in due course, we'll get to a more reasonable answer.
Lucas Pipes -- B. Riley Securities -- Analyst
Real, I really appreciate office detail. My second question is along the lines of copper, project satellite, etc. And when I think back to a few years back, it seems like those -- some of those projects were potential monetization targets. It sounds very different today, obviously. What I wondered in terms of strategy going forward, would you be going so far as to be inquisitive on the M&A side when it comes to copper project specifically? And if so, where we should be looking? And then given some of the things you mentioned earlier in regards to the outlook for copper, what would be the implications for exploration spending, etc.? I would really appreciate your perspective on this. Thank you.
Donald R. Lindsay -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Okay. There are several questions within that. I'll start with some. First, in terms of -- you mentioned inquiries or looking at buying. We're not interested in buying anything because we are very rich in resources and technically, we have eight projects to work through. So that's not to say that our eyes are closed. We're obviously going to keep an open mind. If something comes along that is that much better than everything we've already got. Then we'll take a look at it, but we don't expect that to occur.
In terms of exploration budget, as we get further along knocking off all these initiatives, such as Neptune, help fuel water treatment for river wire treatment and we're pricing it with copper, zinc, where they are, more capital becomes available, and I would expect that exploration we'll share in that. And we've been very pleased with the work our exploration team has done over the years. So yes, is the answer to that question.
In terms of monetization of the assets, I guess I'd make two observations. One is, clearly, the assets are worth more today than they were a year ago pre coded, and that's just a function of two things. One is the long-term view of copper price or copper demand, which drives price has shifted from about 2% copper demand growth to 3% to 3.5%. That opens up a big gap, which means that these projects are more valuable based on the long-term price people are using. But then also the mid-caps that really need their next project, they have much better access to capital markets, and they can do a block deal for $500 million of equity and put that to work, getting themselves a new project. So the number of buyers and the ability of the buyers to pay has increased significantly over the last year.
So in that context, we will look at the market. But as one of our Board members said, why would you ever sell a copper project, given the outlook for the world over the next 10 years? I think the answer is somewhere in between. Getting the right balance. And we've looked at some of our situations and listened to the inbound calls that we've been receiving. And there are some interesting opportunities whereby we could bring on a partner, and they build it with their capital and their people, and we're left with half a mile or more for free. And that MEKs in between QB2 and QB 3, then that's a pretty good situation. So we're looking at those kind of options. And what we'll do is we'll put together a whole package of information on the portfolio.
And just back to Timna's question earlier, I mean, one of the reasons we can't really answer today is because we just don't know when Cove's going to end and COVID is the single determining factor as to whether people can even visit a site to decide whether they want to buy something or partner with us or whatever. That's still up in the air, still not possible in some circumstances. So that's why it's hard to be too definitive on the dates.
Brian McArthur -- Raymond James -- Analyst
Hi. Good morning, Don. Again, mine has to do with project satellite. I know you've given lots of answers. But just so -- and obviously, you've got lots of strategic options. Are we now thinking originally project satellite with all monetization? You've talked about a partner building one of your projects. Can I assume that you don't really want to build any of these eight projects? I mean, I could argue, maybe you should have another production center or or what's your philosophical thinking on that? And given originally, you thought you could monetize project satellite for $3 billion or at least that number was originally put out. I don't know if you'd be willing to put out a new potential number you might be able to get out of this.
Donald R. Lindsay -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Okay. A couple of clarifications that we took these projects that were all very early stage. And what we said is we've moved them through the scoping, resource, reserves, scoping study, pre-feasibility, feasibility and then decide what best to do with it, whether it was to actually build it made sense as part of tax portfolio or to partner or to contribute into another company, take back shares, ride the cycle or to sell outright for cash. So it was never contemplated that we had monetized all of them, but some were less likely to become part of the tech portfolio going forward. And so it was always thought that some of them would be monetized. We set a target of $3 billion of value.
In terms of NAV, we have significantly exceeded that for those five projects, but we haven't necessarily realized any of it in cash. We do know from just inbound calls and letter proposals and things that we get unasked that we could clear significantly over $1 billion on a couple of them, if we chose to do that. We know we've received offers that say those numbers. We did this long away from getting a letter to actually closing the deal. But so significant value has been created by the satellite team.
The market has shifted structurally, we think, for some time, covers had a big impact of well. No question about it. And part of that is decarbonization and the associated electrification and long-term demand for copper looks very strong. So that causes us to rethink it carefully in the table. We've done studies of all our competitors to see what they have coming. And like a lot of people don't have much on the covered in terms of copper resources to develop. And if you look at the exploration track record as an industry, the copper industry hasn't done that well overall. I mean, there have been some successes. But it's limited. So we're looking at very carefully. And as I said earlier, we will commit to putting out a full update on our copper growth division, if you like, let's maybe start calling that. And so the people can see just what kind of a pipeline we've got. But it's pretty exciting, and we've got tremendous resources. We're rich in resources.
Q2 Call, July 27
Donald R. Lindsay -- President and Chief Executive Officer
......"Okay. And then, back on satellite, which really internally starting to think of it more as a copper growth division. Satellite of course has the pipe projects. And then, on top of that, we have QB3 and View. And so, in the last major Investor Conference, we had published some details and IRRs and so on, on the key projects. So you can look in the appendix of our IR presentation to get those. We divided into near-term, medium term and longer term options.
The two near term ones of course are Zafranal and San Nicholas. And in Zafranal's case, as we've said before, we needed to wait to see how things landed in Peru. We now know that Castillo is President and we still need to wait to see as his cabinet gets appointed and confirm. So we don't think we'll be in a position to move forward in whichever direction probably until the fall sometimes as we see how things go in Peru.
We own 80% of that project. One thing is for sure is that if we partner in some way that we'll be doing it in such a way that we retain an interest in that copper exposure, whether it's by taking back shares or are selling less than 80% of that sort of thing.
But that project -- that process has already to go. But it's also clear that you can't start it yet until Peru gets a little further along in their transition. And then, San Nicolas, obviously, you'll see the numbers is a very high quality project. We've had a lot of interest. It's very exciting and we're sorting that, sorting through that now doing with different parties in their proposal.
So you'll see more of that in the second half of the year. And then, QB3 as well, we're making good progress there. And I would hope that we would be reporting to the market that will have narrowed the options for that project. You can get some more detail on between now and the end of the year as well.
So you could see incremental decisions on all three of those between now and the end of the year. And I think, please, if I am not mistaken, that's the last question, we're passed the time.
H. Fraser Phillips -- Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis
Yes. Don, you can give some closing remarks.
Donald R. Lindsay -- President and Chief Executive Officer
Okay. I do want to draw people's attention that we will be holding our Annual Investor and Analyst Day. It will be a virtual session on September 21st. So please mark the date in your calendar and we look forward to you joining us.
And we will send out send the date notice shortly in a press release with further details will be issued closer to the date. And just as a final comment, I've to tell you that last week Red and I visited five of our sites. And we are at the port below the before the week before and we took a number of people with us. And I can only say, I wish all of you could have been with us to see the exciting projects that are going on.
We have so much talent, so many really bright hard working people who are so passionate about what they're doing. It was just inspiring to be there and see all the progress we're making.