Great stuff MK, while I don't understand all the gritty details that enter such calculations, seeing them and debating them here is one of the most valuable things I get from this board. Many thanks for doing this and keep 'em coming!
You mentioned re-doing the PEA with the new numbers from this year's work, when they are in. I wonder if that will be a necessary step for CUU to trigger ROFO. I say this because CUU took great pains to have Teck review the PEA as it was developed, and for which CUU paid. This went beyond CUU having good faith as a JV partner IMHO. I think it was to establish a baseline value for SC, from which activities beyond it add value.
Am I mistaken that the estimates you are making for value from reduced construction timeline, Cu price, etc. could not now be easily calculated by the SCJV to add to the 2021 PEA baseline to enable CUU to declare, "OK, we now calculate SC project value to be $1.7B, with 25% as $425M. Add on exploration potential, carried to production, Liard shares, etc. =$xxx". Such an assessment would not require an updated PEA (taking 6 months) for CUU to trigger ROFO, and Teck cannot dispute the 2021 PEA or the added valuations. Teck could then buy out CUU's proportion, add more value the following year in massive drilling, etc. and strike a new deal with a new partner and have it all look good for their shareholders and those of the new partner. Just a thought while we wait.
K