Now if we compare with SC.
- 1st 5 years EBITDA @ $3.50 US copper = $755M US (per tornado chart)
- Teck is now using $1550 US for gold = additional $11M US (per tornado chart)
- Let's add $4 for moly that traded around 40$/kg for 1.5 years now = additional $36M US (per tornado chart)
For a total EBITDA of $802M US (or $200.5M US for our 25%).
With a range of 3.5x to 5x the EBITDA this could value SC between $700M US & $1B US once the project is more advanced. Let's not forget that the QB2 values were at sanction decision and MSN is moving into FS, both more advanced than SC.
However let's also not forget that the current SC EBITDA is very conservative:
- copper recoveries at 83% is a joke when historical work showed 87% - 88%
- grades are proving to be higher than what was used in the PEA for the 1st five years
- the mill is only operating at 92%
Teck is estimating a c1 cost between $0.60 US and $0.70 US per pound LOM. Our PEA came up at $1.00 US per pound. Funny thing is that Teck and CF are reporting the same output (around 161 ktpa). How is this possible when Teck provided all the data to the engineering firm?
$0.30 US to $0.40 US less cost per pound makes a huge difference to the EBITDA... just think about that!
From my perspective, with copper at $3.50 US, SC's EBITDA (during the 1st five years) could be close to $1B US per year.
IMO.
MoneyK
