Re: anybody
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 27, 2023 11:19AM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Shrewd, since 2012 I have held that $1.2 Billion CAD was an attainable sale price, in the right part of the cycle and assuming management was able to foment a bidding war environment.
I have no idea what Ernesto's asking price is and he is not telling his fellow shareholders. I think that is totally unfair, BTW. We have no way to determine if Ernesto is reasonable or crazy, no way to know if we should stick with or abandon this investment and move on to companies not run by the insane.
I understand how $1.2 Billion sounds like a lot. The 2012 Feasibility Study was severely sand-bagged imo and far too conservative in its assumptions, but this still "fools" people into conservative valuation ranges. I also believe that Teck has not put their best foot forward in optimizing the project. The more recent PEA includes none of Teck's best new technologies and expertise, imo. There is still a ton of value that Teck is reluctant to expose. They can't even say a word about the project over a span of ten years! And I have always felt that Schaft Creek is a critical key to developing Galore and more and more evidence confirms this for me.
Lastly, no one in their right mind will argue that copper prices won't be higher in the future. Unquestionably much much higher. The prices used in the recent PEA are already way outdated imo. Just our Moly now represents as much or more than the gold. Its just riddiculous to calculate a present value assuming that copper, gold and moly prices will be the same for the next 25+ years. I think this reality may be sinking in with majors, making their narrative of conservatism and need for discounts ludicrous. I don't see why projects wouldn't start selling at premiums in the not too distant future.
All I know about Ernesto's mindset is that either his asking price is too high (obviously...with no takers), he is incompetent at convincing people of fair value, or that he is not even interested in selling until some future event, development or commodity price level.
If you sign the acquisition agreement today, before end of day, I'll buckle and take $1.15 B.
Wait much longer and the asking price will be $1.2 Billion US.