Re: Personal attacks on AG
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 24, 2012 02:40PM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Thanks for the explanation MG. It is true that there is risk for Teck in this, as in any project, and they have to do some serious number crunching. Galore is a white elephant. If I was Teck, I would shelve Galore, and get going on CUU (better environmentals, big deposit, First Nations support). I suspect Galore might look a little better in 2025 as mining cleantech continues to develop and some environmental risks can be further mitigated. Lots of tailings remediation and environmental R&D going on, at least according to a few friends/associates in the industry.
However, agreed that environmental issues are very sensitive in BC. Sigh, Taseko is an example of how to muck it up royally. Look at the present prov. gov't worries over the proposed Enbridge pipeline, and NDP negativity. However, I'd put the pipeline and Schaft Creek in different categories. The pipeline crosses over 400 bodies of water if I'm not mistaken, and there are grave concerns over the port facility (warranted or not). So yes, environmentals are a potential issue for Schaft Creek, but quite a bit less than Galore or Prosperity imo, and I also think there is pressure to further develop some of BC's resources (both for employment reasons and tax benefits). Prem. Christy Clark is caught in the middle and can't decide which way to lean I think, but I'll leave the political commentary :)
I guess I'm kind of leaning with Elmer (and other bullish analysts) on this one, and think we may face more production pressure in the coming 5-10 years for copper due to worsening grades and greater demand. Buyout prices for all the BC lands? Mostly based on the NPV to me. I desperately hope to be wrong with my "lower" estimates, but can't see high buyout premiums (e.g. north of 3.50-4) unless we are hitting consistent grades around 1% Cu eq. in all the holes on the new zones ... in that case, we'd probably drill more like mad to squeeze a little more from Teck.
I don't think Teck will pay the top dollar some are hoping for on this, but I think it will be "fair" from a valuation perspective (i.e. Teck needs to buy us out, at a premium so we make some decent profit, and still have a reasonable chance of making some very good profits themselves with the risks inherent in long-term mining projects). I'm optimistic on the AZ properties, mostly because of Elmer's enthusiasm and the cheap purchase price if I'm honest. I think the properties may also soften the blow if we do see a buyout around $3 ... some shareholders might be disappointed, but the story won't be done and there will be something to look forward too.
That's it for now. Back to some serious work here away from the board!
Chops