PREFACE: This is just my opinion.

I think Crystallex has been dealing from a position of weakness and has been passive in their efforts, preferring to wait in the bleachers. A more aggressive management team would be pressing the fact that they paid the taxes and bonds etc. This has allowed VZ to exert power and control the process since in their view Crystallex is afraid to take an aggressive stance such as did Exxon. They will take their sweet time about it.

Risk v Reward: Crystallex has to be willing to risk losing the contract to stand up for themselves or they will not likely be rewarded a permit anytime soon.

I would not be invested in KRY if I did not think they would get the permit. But at the same time I do not believe that the permit wil be issued until:

#1 - Crystallex stands up and fights for it

or

#2 - VZ approves the new mining laws, which I don't think will happen before the summer.

If #2 is the trigger then it is likely the new laws will reduce KRY's value in the long run, barring more reserve updates.

Another consideration IMHO is I would not rule out the possibility of a hostile take over by a Russian or Chinese company. Consensus has been: Permit then buyout but at a price between $6 and $10. If a company with more of an "in" with VZ were to attempt a hostile take over at the current PPS, they could get it at say $3.50 to $4.00 (who at this point would NOT sell their shares on this kind of offer)

I think there is a lot more going on than KRY management has let on and their weakness in addressing it is the cause for the PPS deterioration. Still, I do think there will be some development at some point that will be positive for longs, just not at the high levels we all believed we signed up for.