A while back, I saw an estimate for Hugo's oil production cost and it was getting close to $10 a barrel (it was $2.5-3/b in 2003, up from $1.90/b before the strikes in late 2002).

His real problem is a 20-30+% depletion rate, which means he must invest large sums just to keep his production stagnant. He has not been doing so and oil production has been declining since Hugo came into power. He needs to spend well over $10 billion a year now to just keep up with depletion, but we know that he doesn't have the money, which MUST go to social programs or he is gone.

If oil stays down for at least this year, and it really looks like it will, there is probably nothing that Hugo can do -- i.e. he is totally screwed. Unfortunately for him, he made his nationalizations at exactly the wrong time, but he isn't really too forward looking.