Re: Now Another Nitwit Basher Surfaces!
posted on
Jul 21, 2010 12:27AM
Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America
Gustavo - Emotions are high on this board, and anything deemed negative is likely to be more heavily scrutinized than the wildly optimistic posts.
That said, your calculations are based on old estimates of KRY vaule at 100% of the contract with 100% of the expenses vs 1/3 of the contract but you don't give credit for the following:
KRY now only is responisible for 1/3 of the costs
Gold reserves before were based on a lower gold price and KRY has stated as well as stated in their previous filings that the total reserves with todays gold prices would be closer to 22 million ounces. This should be confirmed with the updates KRY has requested as part of this process.
You can argue many other points but it only goes to the point that using the old expected values of KRY against the new JV is not valid. You have to look at KRY as a value of what would the arbitration value be compared with what it would be with a 1/3 interest in this JV and 1/3 expenses to bring the mine into operation.
I grant that the gold sales rules are critical but I am fairly confident that China would not get involved if they thought they would lose money. Rusuro is reporting that they expect some consideration so the Chinese would get equal or better.
I spend much of my life in South America and the Chinese are a growing power. The Russians have an in with VZ but no money. The Chinese are the real power there. They are alos not stupid or desparate.
KRY's SP fate is a result of many past expecatations that failed, but the negativity is at the retail level. These last few days/weeks have been retail selling not institutional selling. I am of the belief that the end of day bump to even or close is to our advantage. This has been going on for a long long time, hence the "Mr. 400" stories we have seen posted here. MM's are propping us while retail sells in my opinion. We are not yet in a place where serious institutional buying will take place. Everything is still speculative. Once the JV is finalized we enter a new level but I don't expect much of a bump if any. Voting to approve is already baked in since we have no other option. The permit will give us a big bounce but clarty on gold sales is the key.
If institutional money thought there was a problem we would see much higher volume trying to get out. What we see is weak retail getting out.
I'm not one to subscribe to the $65 billion per share potential, but neither do I think this would be so heaviliy manipulated if the potential was only $1.20 maximum. Why risk capital for that.
I will sell a portion post permit but I am targeting closer to $2. I'll keep the rest and add or trade for the final run, which I think could be much higher than we are now depending on the political environment.
Don't underestimate the Chinese insight. I have many contacts there and they are anything but stupid, probably because they don't act on emotions. The Chinese don't get into emotional opportunities, they invest in solid profit opportunitities. That's why I am still a KRY Long.