Assuming you think it literally can go either way (50/50) then under 1 scenario you lose the majority of your cash and under the other you have over a 200% gain. a 50/50 shot for over 200% gain sounds like a very good reason to keep ones chips in the pot. If Vegas gave those odds they'd be very poor. Who says you are negative? ;) Completely agree it is and has always been a spec play. Good luck to us all.