We really have to factor in the unpredictability of Chavez. We cannot assume that the usual business rules apply here. Think of Ghaddafi - is he currently planning and negotiating further development of Libya's sweet crude oil fields - som of the best crude anywhere in the world? Is he concerned about employment for more Bedouins in the desert, even for his own tribe? More hospitals? No, he's figuring out how to get his dough, his kids and his own ass out of the country, after spending 30 years burning every bridge. Reminds me of the old joke - when you're up to your ass in alligators, it's often hard to remember that the original objective was to drain the swamp.

Granted Chavez is not in the same position, but I believe those are the rules that apply, not the ones taught in Wharton's MBA school. He reads today's headlines and spends his days trying to manipulate and knock down his potential opponents to ensure he can extend his rule. I simply can't see that he would have the least interest in whether LC ends up costing the the country (not him personally, remember) anything in an arbitration 3 years down the road.

There's no point in trying to make logical sense out of Vennie's business decisions. What I believe we have here, IMO, is a dictator starting to get really hot under the collar. If he can get local thugs around KM88 on his side by giving them control over the artisanal miners, and a cut of what they leech out of the ground, that's what he'll do, 'cause that's one less threat he has to worry about. He's not interested in building some sort of sustainable business model that feeds and educates the locals in future years.

We may well be in a great position to get something good, or even very good out of this play. But to believe that "business logic" governs Vennie right now is complete self-deception. Chavez may have been motivated by a socialist utopia at one time, and all the lovely images that accompany it, but I would think that the last few months have changed his outlook to one of self-preservation. He was in Libya within the past 6 months, shaking Ghaddafi's hand, don't forget. Is he going there in the next 4 months - don't think so.

I also don't believe that off-loading Chavez will help us either, at least not in the short term. Any upheaval in the Vennie govt. will take a while to sort out, and no-one can predict what will replace him - could be worse, just as easily as better.

Having said all that, if I can cobble together a couple of grand by Canada's Tuesday RSP deadline I'll throw it into my plan and buy more KRY - I'll get the initial tax deduction for last year regardless of what happens. Overall, my outlook on KRY is guardedly positive. And anyway, too cheap to sell now. Speaking for myself, wouldn't take much of a jump to make more than I would lose if it tanked from here.