Re: The Reverse Merger
in response to
by
posted on
May 26, 2011 11:21PM
Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America
Gw, you know words like "dire" "all caps" are red flags on public message boards.
I don't like our current situation mostly because we don't have the complete picture at once but $25m from equipment sales and notes mitigated favorably (tied to settlement/award) is all we need.
Estimate, $5m burn rate annually. $10m arbitration expense (reference GRZ max total) and we can last for quite a while.
If the notes can't get mitigated, then a judge will decide what the value of a $3.8b arbitration claim is worth.
Press releases emphasize that notes are current and aren't due until Dec. I highlight this because it demonstrates to me that, although it is important to me the sooner the better, it doesn't mean management views it that way.
One other thought is why restructure/refi now if a reasonable chance exists that some form of a settlement could be reached prior to the notes being due? Reasons exist but we have no idea what the cost of the restructure/refi would be. Or it could be management is pissing into a cat 5 hurricane and can't get it done.
A positive possible example: Venezuela pays $300m up front for all plans/etc. associated to LC. We provide consulting services, expertise, etc. as a transition to getting the mine up and running at maximum capacity. Plus Vz pays us a royalty over x years up to a set amount. Maybe we get some form of guarantee of future royalties from the partner that Vz chooses to fund the project to cover the volitility in vz. We drop arb case and continue to pay $2.1m a year at El Callao indefinitely. The current pictures I saw of the revemin mill today looks like it needs a paint job, maybe more.
OR I AM WRONG AND MANAGEMENT IS GOING TO SIGN A SECRET DEAL TO REVERSE MERGE THAT PAYS CURRENT SHAREHOLDERS A QUARTER AND THEY WILL GET THEIR $2, $3,$4, ETC OPTIONS RE-PRICED TO A NICKEL AND SHAREHOLDERS WILL JUST SAY YES YES YES YES THANKYOUBOBFUNGANDOPPENHEIMERANDMARSHALLANDOFCOURSEHUGOOURPAL.