When the warm summer months settle in, it sometimes affords the chance to ruminate in a way that is not possible during busier times of the year. I found myself thinking about Mr. Chavez’s unfortunate illness and what may happen afterward to Venezuela and even our Crystallex path.

From what I have read, Mr. Chavez is very unwell. What he is saying lately about his health cannot be relied upon, as little he says can be directly accepted as true. Rather, there are signs that his cancer is advanced, and not of a good form. This link quotes American medical sources as suggests he may (or does) have a form of colon cancer, with worrying signs of its advanced nature and, therefore, quite a poor prognosis for survival.

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2011/07/how_bad_is_hugo_chavezs_cancer_very_bad_say_physicians.html

So, I wonder what will happen in the coming months. Can Mr. Chavez`s recent past decisions (and those in the near future) be explained by what he now medically knows (and we do not). Could, for instance, this rash of decisions on movement of gold and nationalization of more resources be a sign of hurried and almost panicked decisions by a man without much time left. Might he have had other reasons to accelerate getting access to the `real` gold for some family or ideological purpose, especially if he will not be around long to steer his ship. Should we be surprised if we witness him setting up a `legacy` for himself. Hugo the legendary, how would that fit his current planning, if he knew he was dying. Would it not fit the man to try to die ``knowing`` (in an addled mind) that he was a now national hero to be venerated for eternity? Will he try to divert democratic process in his last desperate act, and die a socialist hero?

And, finally, if his health continues to fail and he is replaced. Whither goes the politics of Venezuela, its international business relations, the internal investment climate? Who survives Chavez, and what type of person would this be? Surely those around him, having seen the national devastation he has wrought, would want to repair much of it.

I know we are planning for the worst case now....arbitration and financing. But, should Chavez go, how might his passing within, say, 6-8 months change our viewpoint? What might it foretell for Crystallex`s wrongfully terminated contract, a future buyout, or the arbitration pay out?

Summer thoughts. I would be interested to read everyone’s views on this excellent board.