My take.......
At the end of the day, the majority of stakeholders (or somewhere around 66%) have to agree on a final deal to let us emerge from bankruptcy protection. Except us loser shareholders waiting for crumbs.
While this $36 million is nice and all, its still doesn't get us out of CCAA, it just allows us (if the judge approves a stay of longer duration), to continue along in the arbitration process. The money is probably more than enough to get us through arb, so, if we get a stay for that long, then ya, we'll get out of this process.
The judge in this case seems very shareholder friendly, so we may just get what we want, and the noteholders will just have to wait then if they don't want to roll over their debt.
However, my guess is that with this motion and deal put forward, the noteholders will most likely come back again, as they have been throughout this process, and make another offer. I mean, why let someone else who only puts up $35 million, get more interest and 35% of any award, and on top of that, I still have to wait 3 years, and I have no control over the process?
Surely, maybe, if they come forward and say, you know what, we'll just roll over our debt, put in another 25 million, we'll take 10% PIK interest, and we want 30% of the award, 2-3 board seats, and heck, we'll even give managment 5% of the award. Surely, they would be the preferred bidder, everyone and the judge would most likely approve the deal, and we can emerge from bankruptcy protection a lot sooner. And you know what, the noteholders are big shareholders too, win, win, win, for everyone, right?
So, why is it so hard to come to a deal? Its not. Everyone just wants as big a piece of the pie they can get. Its just high stakes negotiating. What everyone involved seems to agree on though, is that we should be worth at least $600 million 3-4 years down the road. (or next week if there is a settlement ;)
Question is, how much of the pie do us shareholders get? Thats all I give a sh*t about. But I've already bet a long time ago, that its worth a lot more than $0.15.
Show me the money.
Cheers,
FK.
