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Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America

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Message: View on appeal being dismissed and venezuela election
3
Sep 27, 2012 10:41AM

whew,

This is great news. I wasn't too worried about the appeal being dismissed, but as they say, you never know. But at least now, the possible crumbs left over for shareholders just turned into a possible meal.

Why? Well, now the unsecured debtholders (the $100 million) are now second in line behind the DIP lenders in the event we are broken up.

What does this mean? Well, they are more likely to do a reasonable deal because well, if we are left in bankruptcy and forced to dissolve our assets, well, they'll most likely get zero. I mean, we already owe the DIP lenders $20 million or so, and our only asset is the arbitration case. The DIP lenders are the first in line in any liquidation, and will most likely get everything if that happens.

I'm curious as to what us shareholders will be left with. If I were to guess, i'd say the unsecured debtholders will most likly be offered a deal where they get their money and interest PIK, and probably somewhere in the area of 10-15% of the award. Maybe I'm just too optimistic.

Second, the upcoming elections. Do they matter to us? Yes and no. No, becasue we should get paid off regardless due ICSID rules, etc. But YES, because if Capriles wins, I think we have a possibility of a bigger settlement, and sooner. I don't think we'll get the property back, but we'll prob get more money back.

Election prediction?

I think Capriles wins, for the simple reason that all the polls are getting closer. Also, you have to think, the polls must be skewed towards Chavez because the people who are getting askedwho they'll vote for are more than likely afraid to admit the truth for fear of retribution. I'm sure most Venezuelans know by now that they probably have someone or something peeking over their shoulder at all times. maybe cuban intelligence helping?

Also, I think Chavez and the Chinese know that Chavez may be trailing, hence why they signed the deal in such a hurry before the elections. The Chinese aren't taking a chance with their loans.

and quite simply, I have a lot of latino friends, and they are prone to say Yes, Yes, Yes, Yes......until it comes time to actually do whatever it is asked, then they change their mind. I hope those that are voting for chavez are exhibiting this behaviour.

Cheers, and good luck to all, I think the stock price should rise in the next few days, and significantly rise when we finally have our deal with the noteholders and emerge from CCAA.

FK.

2
Oct 02, 2012 10:40PM
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