Inventory and sales
posted on
Aug 12, 2016 10:36PM
(Edit this message through the "fast facts" section)
This is the key for this quarter as far as I concern. If we buy the explanation of the CFO that the product delay and the backlog is starting to clear. Then we have to focus on inventory level.
Here are some numbers that I think will have implications on Q4 top line
1. Q3 Inventory level at USD $16.7MM Vs. Q2 at USD $11.7MM
2. Q3 finished/semi-finished goods at USD $11.4MM Vs Q2 at USD $7.3MM
3. USD $6MM credit facility available (the other USD $4MM is to keep one line of the German plant in operation, i.e. plant maintenance, operation and labour expenses). Somehow, I keep hearing that the leverage of working capital to goods produced is 1 to 5. For $1 of working capital, $5 of goods can be produced. So for USD $6MM credit facility, they can produce up to USD $30MM of goods
4. The company announced on July 26, 2016 to start delivery under multiple year MSA with a Fortune 1000 company, a week after they received the credit facility from one of the top 3 Canadian Banks (Royal, TD or Scotia). So we know goods are moving out of the door. The question is at what rate after almost one month of Q4 was gone.
5. The build-up of the finished and semi-finished goods (USD $11.7MM) could be the low hanging fruit that can be converted to sales quickly with the credit facility in place.
This is a volatile stock. It is a true roller-coaster stock. Be prepare to feel good for each upswing and to feel sick for each downturn. The company itself has been transformed and the management has assembled key personnel to apply logistics and operational research to its operation. Hope the stars are lined up this time.