I will sell CMM
posted on
Apr 12, 2010 11:32PM
10-20% when we hit $1.00
After that I will keep watching it. Many people ask me when they should sell and this is probably one of the hardest questions to answer and there is no right or wrong answer here. It will depend on the individual.
However, this company is no pump and dump. It has quality assets in safe countries in an industry/market that is in a long term bullish trend. In other words, from everything I have seen up to now, this is one of those stocks that you could just forget about and come back in 3 years and find these shares are worth $5-10. Another Osisko in the making IMO. I am not saying we will see $5 guaranteed, but we are well positioned to do well in the short and long term.
Here are some of the bench marks that are coming and the prices that I believe may correspond to those prices:
Assays at Bedard dyke-out any time now-no real effect unless spectacular
4th Quarter and Year end financials-$0.75-85
Start pouring gold at Lamaque on schedule or before $1.00-1.20
Run Lamaque at an average production rate of 70k ounces per year for 4 months $1.50-$1.75
All these events are happening within the next 6 months, so I believe we still have 200% upside from here before the end of the year. Not too many stocks offer these precise benchmarks for the market to assess management's capabilities. As long as CMM delivers on time or close to it without too many hiccups, I believe that these numbers are very realistic. The only caveat is the price of gold. If it goes under $1000, we will get a pretty good haircut on all these numbers but we will still be cashflow positive and will still do OK. If the price of gold hits $1500 or more, we can probably close to double all these numbers.
Congrats to all those that have made good money on paper here, you all deserve it. Now you need to spend some time and think about your exit strategy. Hopefully, this post helps you with that!
Good luck all,
Glorieux