1 Possible scenario on how we got here
posted on
Feb 26, 2011 11:21PM
I have had the fortitude of being in CMM since November 2009 (we were trading at 16 cents at the time), before the investments of Maxim Finskiy and Fran Scola. I have followed the company diligently since then and looking back and thinking about what is going on now this is my interpretation of what has lead us to this point.
When the big financing was done by Finskiy and Scola at 20 cents with warrants at 30 cents in December 2009, they relaunched the company. This company was in dire straights and it was their cash injection that permitted CMM to get Lamaque up and running again. I remember in the first conference call by Peggy, Fran Scola came on and talked for a few minutes. He described how he and Finskiy had searched the planet, looking at over 100 companies and CMM was the one that stood tall against all others for them to build a mid tier gold producers. There was brave talk of gettting CMM to first 300k ounces of gold per year, then 500k ounces. They would get CMM to that level of production by growing both organically and by acquisition. Their SP was to be their currency when doing their M&A activities.
Now fast forward to July 2010: We have a share price that is still hovering around 50 cents because of: delays in start up at Lamaque, the CTO, the CMM history and possibly Peggy Kent and her reputation as well. There was no way to use the CMM SP/MC as a currency to do any M&A activities.
Peggy Kent retires for family reasons in July, yet the SP barely moves. So the PK excuse is now gone. The CTO is also dealt with as every financial report since then has been on time, actually they even followed the TSX guidelines, so that is not the reason for our low share price. However, delays were still ongoing at Lamaque and the reputation of CMM was hurting even more.
What were Finskiy/Scola to do? They have big plans. They are very bullish gold and want to build a mid tier gold producer asap but the CMM vehicle is just not cooperating. Probably sometime in September, there is a meeting of these guys and their advisers to start analysing the situation and come up with a plan to achieve their ambitions.
I believe this plan was to create a new company: White Tiger Gold. This new company would not have the baggage that CMM has. The sharefloat would be much more tightly held preventing a run on the stock and enabling the boys behind it to have a bran new vehicle to go after their ambitions. They still like the assets in CMM, but the history of the company and the shareholder base were complicating their march towards their goal.
With their recent 44-101, they will now be able to raise serious money, probably north of $250M to make a cash deal for CMM shares that they do not already own/control. I would not be surprised to see a PP done at $4 to institutions that will be promised a growth story in the gold space backed by very strong hands. 80M shares would then yield $320M dollars, enough to convince the CMM sharesholders to yield their shares. Max and Fran will simply take new shares in WTG for their CMM shares. You would then have WTG with about 250M shares at $4 for a MC of $1B. With the CMM assets in there, that MC makes more sense then their current MC and current assets. From here, I believe they will get a listing on the LSE and be able to market these assets in a way that was just not possible with the history of CMM.
I believe that the assets of CMM are counted on very hard for the plans of this new company and that we should be paid a fair penny for it. Russians have a reputation of being shrewd and tough negotiators but I wonder how this possible take over will play out. I cannot imagine them giving us their best offer first. A first offer may come in between $0.90 and $1.00 to see how we react.
If we hold our ground and I believe their is enough shareholders big and small who realize the value of CMM at this very important juncture to do this, then we may be able to get them to pay us a more fair value around $1.20-$1.30. I think at this level, they would secure the shares they need to get control of CMM. I know that I would take that offer.
There certainly is reasons to be excited about the next few weeks. Will they announce a bid this week, before PDAC so we can all discuss it at the show or will they wait at the last possible moment, Tuesday March 8th after the market closes?
Exciting times are coming...
Glorieux
PS: I have no insider knowledge and any forward looking statement is pure conjecture on my part.