Not one single shareholder that is posting here will ever get close to the date when the shares actually swap. In a normal takeover those shareholders sell into arbitrage long before the voting date. Yes the offer will be crap and the market will place a value on the crap offer and that will be reflected in the sp of both WTG and CMM.
I firmly believe the offer will be far better than 4:1, for the simple reason that the average down and the average up for the two companies creates the arbitrage trade. That trade is critical to have the shares of CMM accumulate with a small number of arbitrage traders who are merely interested in the 5 to 6 point spread between their entry and exit. To cut a deal you need to have arbitrage vote your way.......not the shareholders..........arbitrage holds the power!
What we are all trying to do is value WTG relative to CMM.........who cares? .....it doesn't matter what those numbers are. What matters is what arbitrage is willing to pay relative to what they will get when the arrangement is closed. The numbers you must look at are what the Russians have invested in WTG (not it's "market" value) and what they have into CMM.Then you calculate forward a reasonable average cost per share to take over both companies as a merged entity. In order to do that you need a significant number of the votes and you are not permitted to buy those shares yourself. You need a small group of professional and reasonable traders that will be satisfied with a small lift in a clean easy deal.
This tree will get several sound shakes and the shares will fall to arbitrage and arbitrage will close the deal. To do that you need the market to drive WTG down and push CMM just high enough to get a bunch of shareholders to run for the hills. Look what happened in the past 5 days. 20 million shares went to hands that have a lot more room for profit as their entry point just got a lot lower for them. People who claimed they would NEVER sell for $1.20 just sold for 48 cents! The next play is to run the numbers up to shake the next batch loose.
The offer will be Two for One. Without the professional traders this deal can't be done.......the pro's want to see margin.
The Russians just need to end with a decent average price. look at this in terms of overall capitalization and then work backwards from there.
Our sp will go up slightly and WTG will go WAY down and the difference is the value of the the cash and assets that WTG brings to the table........capitalize both companies up. This deal is done as all of us will grab a profit or lock in a loss and run for the hills.
If you want to have some real fun with this then email Integra and tell them we will take less money from them, simply to make sure the Russians don't get the deal. Make nice with the big shareholders and ask them flat out what they intend to do. They'll lie, but then again so is everybody. At least you can all lie as one big block. Blocks have power!
Find a leader.......back him/her......and you have a shot at this!.......But.......we all know that won't happen. Or you can hope there are a few players who are greedy and buy every share they can afford and drive this thing over the offer price. That'll piss em off!......as the other pro traders will demand more.
Without a second player this is a barrel shoot. Pray the Chinese have some ammo to invest or that one or more of the big shareholders are sneakier than the Russians.
Value is a funny thing.....it usually gets attained in an open market because there is always someone greedy enough to look for the margin.......greed is good!.............JMO......carry