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Message: WTG/Century Arb spread....

I know you guys love when I post so I can't help but oblige. This time though, nothing contentious. We all know what the terms of the deal are at the moment and obviously there's currently a spread you could drive a truck through. This is due to 3 factors. 1. The perceived questionable value of the acquirer. 2. The perceived shaky financial ground of Century (should the deal not go through) and 3. The perception that the deal won't go through. As we move closer to a conclusion, one way or another that spread will tighten. Although if the conclusion is a merger then #2 and #3 will cease to be concerns. The stock will trade tighter and tighter to the 1 for .4 ratio. Under a normal arb situation, the factors that would effect the spread would be the possibility of another acquirer emerging (in which the deal might trade thru the terms), possible regulartory issues and the time until the deal closes. In our case, if the deal passed, we'd only have to worry about the time til close. And that would more than likely be very quick so the spead would trade to parity almost immediately following the vote. I would also offer this thought.....The float as we all know on WTG is small. Although about 24 million shares came off lock up about a month or so ago. Despite that, the stock has seen relatively little pick up in volume and only sold off slightly vs. where it was prior to the lock up. This would make it clear to me that those shares are tightly held and if they haven't sold at this point they likely won't. (why would they? If you've ridden it back to 1.80 and still own it, you'd have to love it when you add Century's assets and potential). So you guys do what you want to in terms of voting. But if it passes and you sell your WTG shares you are fools. And my guess is that becomes very evident in an extremely short period of time.

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