posted on
Apr 06, 2008 04:52AM
In order for FNC to achieve a price in the range you suggest, the market cap would rise to an amount slightly in excess of NOT's current M/C. (circa $650 Million). If we were to back out say $150 Mn. for NOT's non- McFaulds properties, your implied FNC Cap would be about 25-35% higher than NOT's attributed to McF. Since NOT is well funded, has and controls a huge piece of ground compared to FNC, and part of that ground has demonstrated resource, NOT is a considerably greater value currently than FNC. That is not a bash at FNC, it simply lays out the comparative math (some it) that I think currently applies. I am not a seller of either FNC or NOT at these levels, but it does suggest a trade from FNC to NOT for value only. I think on balance that FNC is good value at 2.25, but comparatively poor beside NOT. I am sure there are some refinements needed to this analysis, but I am long on almost all the McF plays at these prices, but only NOT is moving rapidly from the spec category so far.