Re: new ripple re: Magpie PP - Fantomas
in response to
by
posted on
May 05, 2011 11:56AM
Resource projects cover more than 1,713 km2 in three provinces at various stages, including the following: hematite magnetite iron formations, titaniferous magnetite & hematite, nickel/copper/PGM, chromite, Volcanogenic Massive and gold.
Real Numbers of Ore are Often Ignored
Fantomas: Couch all this in blue sky hope, not solid ore known. With this perspective, let's discuss. Everyone says finding nickel at McFaulds would be a game changer. But you are absolutely correct to be skeptical of a speculation of 2 to 3 dollars for nickel. Much depends on how much ore and if it massive.
I can see 2 to 3 dollars from 1.5billion tons of iron ore between McFaulds and Lac Lamalee, plus percentage and shares from Champion. However, why would a nickel core strike take us past Noront who has more nickel indicated?
This takes us to the central question: why would finding nickel be a game changer? What does game changer mean? For me, it means E-nest is not the only economic nickel in the ROF. The blue sky has been greyer on Noront because Wes hasn't discovered more strikes. But if Fancamp finds a massive ore, then everything becomes much bluer. If there are two, can there be three? Is Smith's theory accurate -that E-nest is an extension of where much of the ore lay, which is under Fancamp ground? The target they are chasing is very large, could the whole thing be nickel. What about the other targets, do they have the same signatures, could they be nickel.
Plus a FNC strike this awakens several things: Investors are used to Noront's iron and their intention to develop 2 to 5 years from now. FNC would be the new thing to invest in, and they know FNC intends to sell. This leads to the full realization of what it means to have a new Major, Baosteel, in the Ring of Fire, because they are buyers. Plus, we've got Chromite and they are all about stainless steel. So a buyout seems likely.
So, I guess in conclusion, my dreaming is based on the non-reality of investor enthusiasm for the above reasons. Unfortunately, real numbers of ore often mean nothing to investing. If you were to actually break down the numbers of Noront's ore vs. the cost of infrastructure, their current SP would be a sell. Everyone is hoping they find more nickel. If you were to break down Fancamp numbers, Magpie and Champion numbers, and the current chromite ore, and RGX numbers, would be more the the current SP.
In addition, Noront has double the outstanding fully dilluted shares then we do. Plus we have other properties Noront doesn't have that have known ore. Plus we have blue sky properties Noront doesn't have. So comparing Nronot with Fancamp is now like comparing apples and oranges. FNC has different value sets attached to ROF. Nickel ontop of all other FNC properties is a bonus.
So $2 to $3 could easily be $3 to $4 dollars with the confluence of these 1) A healthy nickel strike, 2) helthy depth of chromite, 3) Baosteel meets with Smith and Granger, 4) Cliffs meets with Smith and Granger.
Keep in mind, this is all couched within BlueSky perspective. The reliable bread and butter that will take us to $3 to $4 bucks this year will be Magpie, Lac Lamalee, and Champion offers as they plow ahead with 8 drills.
Bearing the BlueSky perspective in mind, my question is this: Suppose C-1 takes us up $2. Once we act on FNC's other properties this summer and they add an addition $3. Does 3 bucks pile on top of the $2 to make $5, or do both properties get mushed together to be $3.
OK, enough tomfoolery speculating. Let's focus on all the clues given in the slew of recent posts and gather more clues. Let's also keep Smith focused on dividend distribution to shareholders, getting the property numbers out, and not dilluting Fancamp further.
About dilution: if FNC strikes nickel, investor impatience will demand that he drill right away. However, until we accept an offer from Champion, that 14 million is needed for Fermont area. Smith could issue another PP, and futher dillute us to raise cash to drill. However, after 30 days above $1 we can force warrants to be exercised, and we'll have cash then with out additional dillution beyond known warrants. I would encourage that. Let's not get past 100 mil OS until our SP is way up there..
-StockGreed