I guess I need a refresher course for that elementary school arithmetic I applied to our tonnage.
I don’t know how I came up with a 25% credit of our ore to arrive at 100% ferrotitanium;
in other words, needing four kilograms of our ore to derive one kilogram of ferrotitanium.
Naturally, the corrected number needs to account for how many kilograms at 11% titanium
we need to yield the 79.3% “typical” of ferrotitanium. That is 79.3 divided by 11 = 7.209.
In other words, on a kilogram-by-kilogram basis, our ore yields 13.87% of what we need
(not the 25%, I said earlier). So, I will present the numbers again (this time corrected and
rounded off differently):
1 billion tonnes = 1 trillion kilograms
13.87% of 1 trillion kilograms = 138.7 billion kilograms
138.7 billion kilograms = 126.7 billion kilograms after 12 billion kilograms are lost in the process
126.7 kilograms X $7.90 per kilogram = one trillion dollars
So now (instead of the $1.58 trillion I came up with before) we only have $1 trillion to divide up
and discount (because the ore needs to be purified and brought to market).
1% of $1 trillion = $10 billion.
That’s $82.45 for one fully diluted share (as of 12/16/11).
5% of $1 trillion = $50 billion.
That’s $412.25 for one fully diluted share (as of 12/16/11).
Of course, no matter how you slice it, all these numbers are astronomical.
Of course, we nor anyone else will be bringing all this ore to market at the same time.
Of course, theoretically, doing so will drive the price down to near zero.
Realistically, in the long run, our titanium resources, vast as they are, will wind up being
marketed, gradually, over hundreds of years.
Realistically, resources of these dimensions are not appropriate for the portfolio of a company
of our size. However, one way or the other, it is entirely appropriate we be paid for them at a
price somewhat higher than the $5 per share people keep bringing up. Also, I’ve only been
talking about Magpie. The rest of FNC is worth something (to say the least).