The prognosticators, as usual, are out there. So far as the overall direction of the market, I have my own (firmly held) opinions as well. So far as my own disposition, I am not particularly humble. But—when it comes to voicing out loud my thinking of exactly when the markets will turn (and to what degree)—I’ll leave it to others.

Aside from what theories are presently making the rounds—right now—I will report what often is not talked about at length, namely volume. When, indeed, volume does grab somebody’s attention and does get reported, the commentary usually exaggerates its newsworthiness. When you don’t embellish the story with forecasting and fanciful observation thrown in—compared to price levels—the statistical volume level of markets does not make for much in the way of enthralling news.

Being I’m human (as most of the rest of us here are), talk of the volume level of markets leaves me cold. Also, generally, I don’t subscribe to whatever theory is being espoused at any particular moment to explain what some higher or lower volume level may mean (if anything). In of itself, of course, a shift in volume to the upside is not cause for unbridled optimism because of the self-evident and widely known fact that the number of shares traded equally represents Buyers and Sellers.

Also, strictly in terms of Fancamp, volume does not prove or evidence anything much in the way of any predictable price trend. For one thing, the sampling size is too small to be statistically predictive. For another thing, even if the Fancamp sampling size were huge, even that would not be statistically predictive because we cannot get a good hold of all the thought processes (and all the brain activities) of all the Buyers and Sellers (and that’s not to mention their level of understanding and what they know and what they don’t know).

Nor does volume even indicate what a determined Buyer or a determined Seller will do next. It is well known Buyers and Sellers often change their minds—day-by-day sometimes hour-by-hour—even going so far as taking positions diametrically opposed to what they were earlier. Also, the emotional state of shareholders (and non-shareholders) plays a major role. Will the trading increase or decrease be sustained? By how much? How much is this costing people? Can they afford it? Can they afford not to do it? Are there newcomers? Have any old-hands left for good (or temporarily)?

Therefore—because of the aforementioned and because human behavior is unpredictive—volume gyrations generally don’t get me excited. On the other hand—so far as it goes—I cannot deny the recent uptick in Fancamp trading volume has been a welcome change for the good. Associated with it is the corresponding increase of liquidity in the stock (which has enabled me—with ease—to more than double my position this year, mostly in June).

In any event—in spite of all of us having the determination and diligence to get to the bottom of things—I doubt the close study of Fancamp’s recent trading volume uptick will have any great practical or long-term value. Having said that (and having given my misgivings about reading too much into raw volume numbers), as follows are very dramatic and very sustained and unrelenting volume numbers that, indeed, do tell an important and instructive story that, so far, has escaped the attention of this Message Hub.

Many of the companies of Toronto Venture Exchange are Junior Gold Miners or Junior Gold Explorers. What’s going on with the main fund that represents them to institutional investors tells us reliably—so far as large enough trading volume to be statistically significant—to what degree the investing public’s favorable or unfavorable interest has returned to the speculative mineral resource companies.

Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (symbol GDXJ) consists of junior miners, both gold and silver, throughout the world (64.4 percent being Canadian). It was designed to represent how they’re doing; not designed to chose who’s good and avoid who’s bad). The assets are US $2.2 billion and consist of 62 holdings. As follows is the monthly number of shares traded, since its November 2009 inception.

9.13 million – November 2009
10.50 million – December 2009

8.56 million – January 2010
9.70 million – February 2010
7.94 million – March 2010

9.47 million – April 2010
13.30 million – May 2010
8.50 million – June 2010

5.68 million – July 2010
5.75 million – August 2010
9.00 million – September 2010

11.24 million – October 2010
15.69 million – November 2010
14.90 million – December 2010

16.33 million – January 2011
13.20 million – February 2011
14.91 million – March 2011

14.02 million – April 2011
16.56 million – May 2011
14.05 million – June 2011

15.04 million – July 2011
22.76 million – August 2011
20.55 million – September 2011

15.64 million – October 2011
15.13 million – November 2011
16.87 million – December 2011

13.39 million – January 2012
13.64 million – February 2012
16.23 million – March 2012

16.41million – April 2012
29.61 million – May 2012
21.52 million – June 2012

12.19 million – July 2012
17.11 million – August 2012
23.84 million – September 2012

13.90 million – October 2012
14.67 million – November 2012
13.75 million – December 2012

16.58 million – January 2013
18.81 million – February 2013
19.99 million – March 2013

30.21 million – April 2013
23.94 million – May 2013
21.00 million – June 2013

22.34 million – July 2013
29.17 million – August 2013
21.94 million – September 2013

23.49 million – October 2013
22.83 million – November 2013
30.82 million – December 2013

47.77 million – January 2014
73.67 million – February 2014
83.96 million – March 2014

84.84 million – April 2014
73.61 million – May 2014
113.65 million – June 2014 (partial month ending June 25th)

Thursday last week (19 June 2014) was the record high volume for one day. Shares traded were 13.95 million. The close was 43.10. So—confirming a sustained and sharp upward trend—approximately US601 million dollars were traded in one day (last week) in what used to be considered, last year, as the darkest and most speculatively insignificant corner of the investment world. Last year, up until December, the investment institution consensus was to shun the junior mining sector and to brand it as not-investment-grade. When money changes hands in that very same sector to the tune of half a billion dollars a day, something’s up.