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Message: Re: Selling out in current market.

Jul 27, 2008 10:07AM

My figure was based only on the $85 an ounce in the ground that Kinross has offered. I agree that most buyouts are couched in terms as a percentage over the current share price in order to demonstrate what a great deal the shareholders are getting.

Of course in cases like GRZ, KRY and the Kinross/ Aurelian deal, the base price has been hugely depressed by the political issues and does not fairly reflect the actual value of the assets.

However we should not be railroaded into accepting a low ball offer and providing the permit question is resolved favorably before any offer comes we do have negotiating power. In a way Aurelian shareholders are unlucky in that their political issues are still outstanding and they were very close to needing an infusion of cash in order to survive so their options were limited. Kinross got a bargain by accepting more risk than most majors are prepared to stomach. Good on them.

However GRZ doesn't have to raise cash anytime soon so that pressure won't be exerted on the company. KRY might be a different matter. While they have funds now their burn rate is much higher and they could become vunerable either to accepting a low ball offer or alternatively, massive dilution.



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Jul 29, 2008 08:02AM
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