My thoughts on the AGM
posted on
Jun 03, 2010 10:22PM
New Discovery Resulting in a 20KM Mineralized Gold Belt
I got there about 10 minutes late, just as Frank Candido said: ...and this concludes our meeting! My jaw almost dropped, however, I soon gathered that this was the official part of the meeting with voting for auditors, option plan etc...
Frank then started telling the story about the new GNH, the one that started last September. That is when Frank took over from Louis Hoel, our past president who keeps making our insider trading sheet look like crap...the good point here is that he is out of shares and is now off the board of directors. He still has about 900k options at 35 cents but they expire in 90 days.
Now, back to the important stuff. When you want to know how many ounces of gold you have, you simply multiply grade and tonnage. So we debated about the first multipler: Grade. Our grade has historically been proven up to be 2 g/t. Thru the bulk sampling (there has been 4 of these now) we got 3 g/t. The company believes that the actual grade is somewhere between 3 and 5 but have no way of proving it at this time.
They gave a few examples where drilled grade and mill grade differed materially. The first was with Agnico-Eagle that has a deposit (sorry forget the name of the deposit) that is located between 500 and 800 m of depth. When they drilled it, they got a 43-101 report indicating about 2t/g-and proceeded to mine it!! They are mining it now and have a mill grade that is over 4 g/t.
They gave another example of a deposit in Africa that had a UN report grading it at 0.52g/t. They are mining that one as well and it is coming in at over 2.5g/t.
The moral of the story, with some deposits, the drill just does not do the grade justice. Thru the bulk sampling, we have proven that to be the case with our deposit.
So, they then discussed that if gold prices stay where they are and fuel costs and other mining cost stay where they are, we can mine 2g/t and have a small margin of profit. If we have 3g/t we have a big margin of profit. So even though the difference between 2 and 3 g/t seems small, it has a big effect on profitability. Having 3g/t makes this a very healthy grade IF the tonnage is there.
That brings us to multiplier #2:Tonnage
The company has enough historical results between Timmins 1 and 2 and the 88 zone to determine that we have around 30M tons of rock with this grade. If you do the math, this gives us 2 million ounces! Very, very significant. However, This zone is about 650 meters by 300 meters ( I could be off a bit here). It does not include the road zone or the Ascot zone which are probably extending our strike length by another 500 meters or so. This area has been drilled recently and returned more similar quartz and visible gold. Assays are pending but being so close to the other zones, I would be surprised if we had results that were materially different.
OK...now the mind numbing possibilities of this being part of a 20km long belt. This is a possibility. The company has lots and lots of work to connect the dots here but we have some support in the form of the Soil Gas Hydrocarbon studies that were done and returned very good results at Laval's Mountain, some 8km to the North East and Beland about 6km to the South West. This is very far from a done deal, but we have support for this whole belt to be mineralized with 3-5g/t quartz. I have no clue how to put a number on that tonnage, so I will not.
The tonnage remains the critical factor here and that is why the company is pressing ahead so aggressively with their drilling program. They need to prove that the possibilities exist. The nice thing for us early investors is that we know we already have a base of mineralization giving us 1-2Million ounces. In Quebec, million ounce+ deposits not in production are usually priced at $75-125 per ounce in the ground. At 1 Million ounces at $75 per ounce, we should have a MC of 75 million dollars, about 3x our current market cap or 59 cents per share. That share price is using the most conservative of all the numbers we have talked about. The blue sky here is just huge.
The intangibles that I liked: Frank Candido gets it! He knows that to be successful, you have to both work the property and work the market. It is rare for a CEO to do both of those things well but I believe he is and the next few months should be very telling.
James Tilsley is a 72 year old man. I was expecting a frail old man but he is anything but frail...or old looking for that matter. He is a very vibrant (yet quite conservative when he speaks) intelligent man who has seen his share of gold deposits. He could easily be retired and golfing everyday but this project has him so excited, retirement will just have to wait.
So stick around people, call the company, talk to people, do your own DD, learn who you can trust and then make your own decisions. I am almost all in with this company right now and my track record is very good when I am invested heavily in one company. This one can be a life changer IMO.
Good luck to all,
Glorieux