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Message: Market psychology, and other..

Investment psychology is a funny thing. When the price of a stock goes down, emotions change. Valuations do out the window. Touching on a comment Hoov made a while ago, there are infinite reasons to sell a stock, and only one reason to buy. The company has changed marginally from one day to the next, but still, the stock price trades within a significant range [19.4% today ($0.74/$0.62)]. Did the gold all of a sudden disappear? Has the company lost its claims? Ummm no.

Do any of us really know the impact of various worldly circumstances? Even some of the greatest economists in the world cannot predict such things. If often blows my mind that investors have not come further, and sell into negative news. Or maybe, it doesn't. As long as humans have emotions, and cannot control them, the market will fluctuate not on fundamentals, but on other erroneous factors. This is why we see so many successful investors suggest to go opposite to the market mood. Warren Buffet said, "Be greedy when others are fearful." I like to think of this quote as, "Be greedy before others get greedy." Be one step ahead, knowing that fear and greed drive the markets, not merely fundamentals. There are so many other factors at play with GNH to consider, including the price of gold, risk tolerance, etc. This is not to say that all negative news is irrelevant, just that emotions are prevalent.

From a strategic standpoint, someone predicting a near term downtrend may sell shares in hopes of picking up more at a lower price. Because GNH has both a near and long term upside, picking up more shares due to a predicted drop in SP may be the only logical approach for a GNH speculator/believer to sell, and later buyback. This strategy could leave a longtime GNH believer up in arms, as assay results could be out anytime in the near future. Because of this, I'm not going to try to pick a top or a bottom, as having no shares when news comes out will be more grieving than knowing I could have gotten more shares and made more money. But to each his own. Buy and hold has been my strategy since March 2010.

In regard to what happened this morning with a quick drop in the stock price. I believe was due to 3 things: The market maker who filled the stop sells that were put a various lower levels, news about West, and negative news in the media. For those of you that don't know, when you put a stop sell on a stock, the market marker can see this, and must fill these orders as the SP drops below it. On the opposite side, there are buyers waiting for the panicky retail investors to give up their shares at a lower level. Also, market makers can buy and sell shares themselves to add liquidity to a stock and make money themselves.

There is always something going on behind the curtain that some may not think about. I believe that if you want to be ahead in this game, you have to be aware of all possibilities and have a sound strategy. As long as the markets exist, there will always be undervalued and overvalued companies. Opportunities will always exist. In hindsight, GNH was in its 20's for a long time (a comment that Brattymack originally stated). It took a while for the market to get greedy on this one. Looking forward to things to come.

Best,

Jordan

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