What a spectacular day...have a great weekend all...GS40
The TSX Composite generated a new medium term buy signal last week. The continued strength this week confirms the signal.
The accumulation of the six bullish prerequisites for a buy signal
- Two bounces off the bottom of the up trend channel - once in early July and once in late August.
- Breakout above the correction channel last week.
- Breakout above 40 week moving average last week.
- Bullish MACD double crossover last week.
- Stochastic crossed above 50 in August
- RSI (relative strength index) crossed above 50 in August
Consequences
A 10-20% rally from current levels by year end is quite possible.
A major down turn in September-October is now quite unlikely.
Only a drop below 11,500 would negate the TSX buy signal.
A repeat of last year's market conditions looks to be in the cards. Last year, TSX bottomed the week of July 6 and rallied through to the end of the year. This year the most recent bottom was the week of July 5. A new medium term buy signal typically results in a rally lasting at least 3-4 months.
US indexes have so far generated 5 of the 6 prerequisites for a buy signal. The 6th prerequisite looks to be imminent.