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Message: September

What a spectacular day...have a great weekend all...GS40

The TSX Composite generated a new medium term buy signal last week. The continued strength this week confirms the signal.


The accumulation of the six bullish prerequisites for a buy signal
- Two bounces off the bottom of the up trend channel - once in early July and once in late August.
- Breakout above the correction channel last week.
- Breakout above 40 week moving average last week.
- Bullish MACD double crossover last week.
- Stochastic crossed above 50 in August
- RSI (relative strength index) crossed above 50 in August

Consequences
A 10-20% rally from current levels by year end is quite possible.
A major down turn in September-October is now quite unlikely.
Only a drop below 11,500 would negate the TSX buy signal.

A repeat of last year's market conditions looks to be in the cards. Last year, TSX bottomed the week of July 6 and rallied through to the end of the year. This year the most recent bottom was the week of July 5. A new medium term buy signal typically results in a rally lasting at least 3-4 months.

US indexes have so far generated 5 of the 6 prerequisites for a buy signal. The 6th prerequisite looks to be imminent.




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