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Message: Technicals

Too many worried people here, although I have to admit that the technical picture has deteriorated a bit since I posted a chart here on the 22nd of September.

Situation is now a little different as we are testing a very strong support level, which is the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level (around 0.47) and the previous (July '10) low of 0.45. A test of this support zone means that RSI would also bottom out nicely around May levels (in uptrends stocks are supposed to bottom out around an RSI level of 35-40. The first chart below is the Weekly chart which shows a negative cross of the MACD, but Directional Movement Indicator still shows that the bulltrend is well intact. MACD and DMI are two conflicting signals here so we cannot be too sure, but the RSI to me is more important and the coming weeks should - if all goes well - show a nice low within the bullish range.

Second chart is the daily chart, which is a bit clearer. Also here you can see the support line around 0.45-0.47. If this level breaks, we are likely to head for a full retracement to May lows, but this is not my preferred scenario. The DMI here shows a bearish trend which is actually getting stronger. The RSI shows a nice triple bottom in the 35-40 zone here as well, but we have to wait and see whether this holds. My advice for optimists would be to put your buy orders in at around 0.47 with stoploss below 0.45.

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