I first started trading in gold stocks the end of last summer. I chanced upon this Message Board a month ago.

Clearly, I’m no geologist. But I’m no dummy when it comes to investing otherwise. In fact, I’ve done well with BAA and others, by good timing, luck, and due diligence.

In any event, I was pleasantly surprised at the intelligent level of discussion here. I reside in Western New York. Naturally, in the USA, the market for low cap natural resource stocks doesn’t compare with Toronto. Compared to this Message Board, going to Yahoo for an informed discussion is next to useless.

Up until a month ago, I limited my investments in gold stocks to companies with NI43-101 estimates of resources. I know the basics of understanding that; but I’m no expert beyond that.

As many investors, I do my best to figure if the reward outweighs the risk. However, more than others, I’m up all night spending the time it takes to come up with the next ten bagger on the reward side that will not go down the drain on the risk side.

For better or worse, that’s landed me here! Why the exclamation point? Judging from the recent emotionalism that has taken over this board, GNH investors don’t seem to believe anymore that they own a stock that still retains the attraction its intrinsic assets have never lost.

I can tell there are many smart people here (in spite of their losses) who are perfectly capable of giving me a wise evaluation of the considerable positives of even the worst case scenario. What do I mean by “worst”? Well, not literally. Let’s put aside the bottom 10%.

Totaling up Measured, Indicated, and Inferred ounces, is there a greater than 90% chance that the initial NI43-101 reported resources will be more than half a million ounces, at greater than average purity, which are economically mineable near surface?

What range of approximate market valuations would that initial half million ounces receive? For example, $40 to $60 million vs. the current market cap of $15.64 million (at 0.135 per share).

Am I wrong to draw my 90% line at half a million ounces? If so, where would you draw it? What do you estimate the chances are for an initial one million? How would the market receive that?