What are we worth ?
posted on
Nov 25, 2011 09:35PM
New Discovery Resulting in a 20KM Mineralized Gold Belt
All Data in CND$ (using a CAD/USD of 0.9595$)
Some of the numbers I have seen fly around are 500 000oz for the belchase zone, that's 14 174 761.6 grams. At 75% of current gold prices that's 46$/gram, let’s assume an 85% recovery rate for a total recoverable value of 554 233 178$. Let’s call it 550M$
Let’s assume that there are no other valuable metals such as silver mixed in, if we come out with a 2g/ton estimate that's 1.7g/ton recoverable, and therefore 78.2$ worth of gold per ton.
A quick comparison I found http://mining.about.com/od/SiteProfiles/a/Deeper-Inside-Malartic-Gold-Deposit-Mining-Process.htm another mine that seems to be in Quebec, we have a cost of around 1.60$/tonne for milling (adjusted upwards as they assume oil at 70$/barrel), and 9.83$ per ton milled of admin costs.
at 2g/ton, 14 174 761.6 grams equals to 7 087 380 tonnes to be milled to recover it.
Therefore milling costs (1.60$+9.84$=11.44$/ton) would be 81 079 627$.
Therefore total profits would be 469M$, # of outstanding shares are 115.9M, so 4.04659$/share.
NOT taken into account here, building a ramp, perhaps building a mill as well (thought the train track might negate that need), maybe the mill for the mine I looked at is right next door, so milling costs could be higher. Do they own the trucks? Maybe we need to buy some big trucks etc... If we add 100M$ of start-up costs (equipment, ramp etc..) I have NO idea if this is a good estimate or not, we reduce profits to 369M$, or 3.18378$/share.
If the resource is only 1.5g/ton (.375M ounces) (with above mentioned start-up cost): 2.02412$/share
If the resource is only 1g/ton (.25M ounces) (with above mentioned start-up cost): 0.82861$/share
Breakeven is if that property has 163 360 ounces, that gives us almost 0$ in profit. Let’s assume we want a 50% downside protection on the actual estimate to go ahead, that means we should have 326 720 ounces, or 1.3069g/ton.
If anyone has more data I could use to refine the estimate please let me know. While this is for just one property, if we assume these costs hold for the entire project, any property with less than 1.3g/ton should NOT be mined, if no properties have this grade we need to close up shop and go bankrupt.