Are we overvalued at the present time?
posted on
Mar 31, 2012 11:24PM
New Discovery Resulting in a 20KM Mineralized Gold Belt
That was a question that was posed to me by someone I respect. At first, I almost thought it was a joke but he was serious and I began to ask myself if I am not over estimating the potential here. It would not be the first time that I see a company thru rose coloured glasses (Noront for one example).
Our current MC is 36M dollars. Are we worth 36M dollars at the current time. This is a very valid question and I would love to hear others throw their opinions here.
I think this is one reason the company wants the resource estimate out asap. This will give everyone a better idea of what a fair value should be for the company. If it does come out at 500k ounces at $60 per ounce, that is $30M. So we are in the ballpark for sure. However, even if we do get 500k ounces, other factors will play in the value here: What is the average grade that SGS is willing to put their name on? How many of those ounces will be within an open pit depth is another question that will be answered. These answers will permit us and the bigger institutional players to get a better sense of what we are worth.
At this point, I do feel like the psychology is broken. The gold equities are beaten down, the juniors even worse and our own demons from our hugely overbought situation to our oversold situation to know has to play on most people's nerves. It is one of the reasons along with the warrants that we have this ceiling at 30 cents. We will need some unexpected good news to get over this psychological barrier.
The market is discounting any decent results from Champagne so solid results there would be enough in my mind to get us into the 35 cents range.
We have some holes in BT that could still surprise the market aka 184 with that nice nuggety picture that we got 2 months ago. Another high grade NR may cause the market take a better look at us.
Belland is a shot in the dark but again, good news there would be a big plus for us.
The elephant in the room of course is the resource estimate. For every 100k ounces of gold, we should have about 5 cents in share price. So at 600k, 30 cents worth, 700k would be 35 cents and 800k would put as near 40 cents. 1 million ounces would put us at 50 cents and probably higher as we would be starting to enter critical mass territory where our value per ounce would increase from $60 per ounce.
One of the big reason we got great spec value last time besides being in Quebec, great infrastructure and having great marketing is the fact that we are in virgin land here. The Cadillac trend from Timmins to Val d'or has been swiss cheesed and looked at by some of the best minds in the mining community. Our land was never looked at seriously mainly because the surface rights and minerals rights were never separated in this area until 1983 ish. To be able to drill for gold anywhere in the world with all the advantages we have is phenomenal. That was a big reason we got such a spec run out of the share price the first time. When the drill results came out and we had a MC of 100 million dollars, we did not live up to the hype and crashed.
TB is a tough deposit to figure out because of the lack of sulfides. Geophysics are useless in this environment which is very challenging. The only way to figure this puppy out is to drill it and then model it. With every assay, we know a bit more and can be more effective with the next set of drill targets. It is a slow process and SGS has to be commended for their excellent work. Now, look at the google map and look at the drill collar locations and where they are concentrated. Now, zoom out and look at how much virgin land is all around us. There is huge potential to grow our deposit and that has a value which is very hard to be precise with. However, if we expand our deposit with holes like 189 and 193 and the far end of the 88 zone, the prospective value as hard as it is to calculate will increase.
What also has me excited is the Champagne zone that the market is completely discounting. This area is a sulfide bearing zone and as such is amenable to geophysics and the company doing the geophysics has already identified some high priority targets. We know as per the non 43-101 compliant report that we have mineralization here with grades that our economic. We know that the visuals were quite strong from the 9 holes we drilled there. If the assays from here match the visuals and look economical, the pace of progress there would be faster than BT because sulfides are present. Also, the pace of other discoveries should be much faster.
The kicker here if things develop well at both BT and Champagne (with an outside chance for Beland) is that the rest of our land will increase in prospective value. Right now we are getting very little value from our very large land package. This could change quickly with good results on the RE and continued good assays from BT and decent assays from Champagne.
Are we overvalued...it depends on how much value you give potential is the answer. The market is giving us almost no value for potential at the moment...
Glorieux